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Coupling models to understand the interactions between energy transition and macroeconomic dynamics

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Coupling models to understand the interactions between energy transition and macroeconomic dynamics
Authors: Jacques, Pierre
Contributors: UCL - SST/IMMC - Institute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, UCL - Ecole Polytechnique de Louvain, Jeanmart, Hervé, Godin, Antoine, Contino, Francesco, Le Treut, Gaëlle, Kemp-Benedict, Eric, Simar, Aude
Publisher Information: 2025.
Publication Year: 2025
Subject Terms: Model coupling, Energy return on investment, Ecological economics, EnergyScope, Stock-flow consistent modelling, Energy transition, Energy system optimization model
Description: The global shift towards carbon-neutral energy systems necessitates in-depth, forward-looking analysis and modelling, motivated by the scale and multifaceted nature of the transformations at hand. This thesis examines the coupling of macroeconomic models and energy system models to generate policy-relevant insights into the dynamics of the energy transition. Such an integrative approach reveals new dynamics and trajectories that would remain hidden if each model were considered in isolation. The simulation results at the world level underline that a global energy transition compatible with the 1.5°C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the energy system's EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation. Potential bottlenecks and supply constraints are a major determinant of the related dynamics. The second part of the thesis focuses on model coupling for modelling the case of the Colombian energy transition. Through this case study, we aim at examining how the macroeconomic dynamics of an emerging, fossil fuel exporting economy can be affected by its domestic energy transition. The simulation results especially highlight the joint dynamics between the energy transition, cross-border financial flows and the national currency exchange rate. Based on this pioneering work, several avenues for future research are put forward, to refine the feedback loops in the coupled model of the economy-finance-energy system. (FSA - Sciences de l'ingénieur) -- UCL, 2025
Document Type: Doctoral thesis
Language: English
Access URL: https://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/298973
Accession Number: edsair.od......1493..6dda8d7bd3e087f0a2b5bd12bb09e051
Database: OpenAIRE
Description
Abstract:The global shift towards carbon-neutral energy systems necessitates in-depth, forward-looking analysis and modelling, motivated by the scale and multifaceted nature of the transformations at hand. This thesis examines the coupling of macroeconomic models and energy system models to generate policy-relevant insights into the dynamics of the energy transition. Such an integrative approach reveals new dynamics and trajectories that would remain hidden if each model were considered in isolation. The simulation results at the world level underline that a global energy transition compatible with the 1.5°C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the energy system's EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation. Potential bottlenecks and supply constraints are a major determinant of the related dynamics. The second part of the thesis focuses on model coupling for modelling the case of the Colombian energy transition. Through this case study, we aim at examining how the macroeconomic dynamics of an emerging, fossil fuel exporting economy can be affected by its domestic energy transition. The simulation results especially highlight the joint dynamics between the energy transition, cross-border financial flows and the national currency exchange rate. Based on this pioneering work, several avenues for future research are put forward, to refine the feedback loops in the coupled model of the economy-finance-energy system. (FSA - Sciences de l'ingénieur) -- UCL, 2025