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Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain
Authors: Simon Blouin, Alexander Herwix, Morgan Rivers, Ross Tieman, David C. Denkenberger
Source: International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Vol 15, Iss 4, Pp 481-493 (2024)
Publication Status: Preprint
Publisher Information: Center for Open Science, 2024.
Publication Year: 2024
Subject Terms: 2. Zero hunger, 02 engineering and technology, System dynamics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Disasters and engineering, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Cyberattack, Global catastrophic risk, Food supply chains, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Electricity, Food Security, 13. Climate action, TA495, 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Business, Operations and Supply Chain Management, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Description: The food supply chain's heavy reliance on electricity poses significant vulnerabilities in the event of prolonged and widespread power disruptions. This study introduces a system-dynamics model that integrates five critical infrastructures—electric grid, liquid fossil fuels, Internet, transportation, and human workforce—to evaluate the resilience of food supply chains to major power outages. We validate the model using the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts as a case study, demonstrating its predictive validity. We then explore how more extreme electricity losses would disrupt the supply chain. More specifically, we model the impact of a large-scale cyberattack on the US electric grid and a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event. A cyberattack severely damaging the US electric grid and allowing for recovery within a few weeks or months would lead to substantial drops in food consumption. However, it would likely still be possible to provide adequate calories to everyone, assuming that food is equitably distributed. In contrast, a year-long recovery from a HEMP event affecting most of the continental US could precipitate a state of famine. Our analysis represents a first attempt at quantifying how food availability progressively worsens as power outages extend over time. Our open-source model is made publicly available, and we encourage its application to other catastrophic scenarios beyond those specifically considered in this work (e.g., extreme solar storms, high-lethality pandemics).
Document Type: Article
ISSN: 2192-6395
2095-0055
DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dc529
DOI: 10.1007/s13753-024-00574-6
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/0eb261f8bb104f96bef41f21f630abd9
Rights: CC BY
Accession Number: edsair.doi.dedup.....e95df338a7ff74d924b07f65e28ebd7b
Database: OpenAIRE
Description
Abstract:The food supply chain's heavy reliance on electricity poses significant vulnerabilities in the event of prolonged and widespread power disruptions. This study introduces a system-dynamics model that integrates five critical infrastructures—electric grid, liquid fossil fuels, Internet, transportation, and human workforce—to evaluate the resilience of food supply chains to major power outages. We validate the model using the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts as a case study, demonstrating its predictive validity. We then explore how more extreme electricity losses would disrupt the supply chain. More specifically, we model the impact of a large-scale cyberattack on the US electric grid and a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event. A cyberattack severely damaging the US electric grid and allowing for recovery within a few weeks or months would lead to substantial drops in food consumption. However, it would likely still be possible to provide adequate calories to everyone, assuming that food is equitably distributed. In contrast, a year-long recovery from a HEMP event affecting most of the continental US could precipitate a state of famine. Our analysis represents a first attempt at quantifying how food availability progressively worsens as power outages extend over time. Our open-source model is made publicly available, and we encourage its application to other catastrophic scenarios beyond those specifically considered in this work (e.g., extreme solar storms, high-lethality pandemics).
ISSN:21926395
20950055
DOI:10.31219/osf.io/dc529