A time series analysis of monthly Holstein milk yield and composition in a hot environment
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| Název: | A time series analysis of monthly Holstein milk yield and composition in a hot environment |
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| Autoři: | Chavarría, Irene, Ángel-García, Oscar, S. Alvarado, Alan, Contreras, Viridiana, I. Carrillo, Dalia, Macías-Cruz, Ulises, Avendaño-Reyes, Leonel, Mellado, Miguel |
| Zdroj: | Mljekarstvo, Vol 75, Iss 1, Pp 52-61 (2025) Mljekarstvo : Dairy Experts Journal CODEN MLJEAU Volume 75 Issue 1 |
| Informace o vydavateli: | Croatian Dairy Union, 2025. |
| Rok vydání: | 2025 |
| Témata: | heat stress, milk lactose, proteini mlijeka, Dairying, SF221-250, milk fat, mliječna mast, milk protein, broj bakterija u mlijeku, toplinski stres, laktoza, milk bacterial count |
| Popis: | This study aimed to evaluate the effects of thermal stress on milk yield and milk composition using the time series approach to forecast the trend of daily milk yield and milk components in Holstein cows in a hot-arid environment. Also, this study evaluated the effect of season on the microbiology of raw bulk Holstein cow milk. The obtained data comprised the average daily milk yield, composition, and bacterial counts from a single high-input dairy herd in northern Mexico, registered for seven consecutive years (2014-2020). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure showed a distinct pattern for the daily milk yield. A two-year forecasting showed 8.4 kg difference in daily milk yield between winter and summer months. The predicted future values based on past values showed that milk solids were highest in January (12.09 %; CI= 11.86-12.31 %) and the lowest in August (12.02; CI= 11.75-12.29). The mean predicted fat content was highest in January (3.60 %; CI= 3.48-3.71 %) and lowest in July (3.44%; CI= 3.29-3.59 %). Following the repeated observations, forecasting values for milk protein percentage were 3.22 % (CI=3.15-3.28 %) in January and 3.07 (CI=2.98-3.1) in April. The ARIMA method forecasted milk lactose as highest in January (4.87 %; CI=4.79-4.95) and lowest in June (4.77 %; 4.68-4.86 %). Standard plate count was higher (p |
| Druh dokumentu: | Article |
| Popis souboru: | application/pdf |
| ISSN: | 1846-4025 0026-704X |
| DOI: | 10.15567/mljekarstvo.2025.0105 |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://doaj.org/article/a946c703e4364b5db13be3ec2ec3ee80 https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/467461 https://doi.org/10.15567/mljekarstvo.2025.0105 https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/467460 https://hrcak.srce.hr/323370 |
| Přístupové číslo: | edsair.doi.dedup.....d7bbd6d43b55cbc8274a9d7f8ee6ef18 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | This study aimed to evaluate the effects of thermal stress on milk yield and milk composition using the time series approach to forecast the trend of daily milk yield and milk components in Holstein cows in a hot-arid environment. Also, this study evaluated the effect of season on the microbiology of raw bulk Holstein cow milk. The obtained data comprised the average daily milk yield, composition, and bacterial counts from a single high-input dairy herd in northern Mexico, registered for seven consecutive years (2014-2020). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedure showed a distinct pattern for the daily milk yield. A two-year forecasting showed 8.4 kg difference in daily milk yield between winter and summer months. The predicted future values based on past values showed that milk solids were highest in January (12.09 %; CI= 11.86-12.31 %) and the lowest in August (12.02; CI= 11.75-12.29). The mean predicted fat content was highest in January (3.60 %; CI= 3.48-3.71 %) and lowest in July (3.44%; CI= 3.29-3.59 %). Following the repeated observations, forecasting values for milk protein percentage were 3.22 % (CI=3.15-3.28 %) in January and 3.07 (CI=2.98-3.1) in April. The ARIMA method forecasted milk lactose as highest in January (4.87 %; CI=4.79-4.95) and lowest in June (4.77 %; 4.68-4.86 %). Standard plate count was higher (p |
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| ISSN: | 18464025 0026704X |
| DOI: | 10.15567/mljekarstvo.2025.0105 |