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Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean

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Titel: Toward more robust net primary production projections in the North Atlantic Ocean
Autoren: S. Doléac, M. Lévy, R. El Hourany, L. Bopp
Weitere Verfasser: Levy, Marina, École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (LOCEAN-PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD Ile-de-France ), Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X), Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris)-École nationale des ponts et chaussées (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)
Quelle: Biogeosciences, Vol 22, Pp 841-862 (2025)
Verlagsinformationen: Copernicus GmbH, 2025.
Publikationsjahr: 2025
Schlagwörter: [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, QE1-996.5, Ecology, Life, QH501-531, Geology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDU.STU.OC] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, QH540-549.5
Beschreibung: Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in both climate regulation and marine biodiversity, yet it faces escalating threats due to climate change. Understanding future changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity under climate change requires the utilization of Earth system models capable of resolving marine biogeochemistry. These models often differ significantly from one another, and most studies typically use the average response across an ensemble of models as the most reliable projection. However, in the North Atlantic, this straightforward method falls short of providing robust projections of phytoplankton net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century. A new inter-comparison approach was therefore developed and applied to eight models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibiting substantial divergence in their NPP projections in the North Atlantic. The basin was first divided into three bioregions tailored to the characteristics of each model using a novel method based on a clustering procedure. The mechanisms controlling NPP projections were then identified in each model and in each bioregion, revealing two mechanisms responsible for a large part of model divergence: diazotrophy in the subtropical region and the presence of an ammonium pool in the subpolar region. This allowed for an informed selection of models in each region based on the way they represent these two mechanisms, resulting in reduced projection uncertainty, enhanced total NPP decrease in the subtropical region, and a strengthened increase in small phytoplankton NPP in the subpolar North Atlantic. These model selections enhanced the decreases in carbon export and phytoplankton biomass but had no impact on zooplankton biomass. This innovative approach has strong synergies with other widely used inter-comparison techniques, such as emergent constraints, and their combination would provide valuable insights into the future trajectory of the Earth's climate system.
Publikationsart: Article
Other literature type
Dateibeschreibung: application/pdf
Sprache: English
ISSN: 1726-4189
DOI: 10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
DOI: 10.48670/moi-00052
DOI: 10.48670/moi-00281
Zugangs-URL: https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/22/841/2025/
https://doaj.org/article/ac8b6411e5d84428a4f12c8ed7672eea
https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04955130v1/document
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-841-2025
https://cnrs.hal.science/hal-04955130v1
Rights: CC BY
Dokumentencode: edsair.doi.dedup.....9d9c7b9c349b7c5fb7772549b13fc9e2
Datenbank: OpenAIRE
Beschreibung
Abstract:Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in both climate regulation and marine biodiversity, yet it faces escalating threats due to climate change. Understanding future changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity under climate change requires the utilization of Earth system models capable of resolving marine biogeochemistry. These models often differ significantly from one another, and most studies typically use the average response across an ensemble of models as the most reliable projection. However, in the North Atlantic, this straightforward method falls short of providing robust projections of phytoplankton net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century. A new inter-comparison approach was therefore developed and applied to eight models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibiting substantial divergence in their NPP projections in the North Atlantic. The basin was first divided into three bioregions tailored to the characteristics of each model using a novel method based on a clustering procedure. The mechanisms controlling NPP projections were then identified in each model and in each bioregion, revealing two mechanisms responsible for a large part of model divergence: diazotrophy in the subtropical region and the presence of an ammonium pool in the subpolar region. This allowed for an informed selection of models in each region based on the way they represent these two mechanisms, resulting in reduced projection uncertainty, enhanced total NPP decrease in the subtropical region, and a strengthened increase in small phytoplankton NPP in the subpolar North Atlantic. These model selections enhanced the decreases in carbon export and phytoplankton biomass but had no impact on zooplankton biomass. This innovative approach has strong synergies with other widely used inter-comparison techniques, such as emergent constraints, and their combination would provide valuable insights into the future trajectory of the Earth's climate system.
ISSN:17264189
DOI:10.5194/bg-22-841-2025