Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France
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| Název: | Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France |
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| Autoři: | Eros Gentilini, Olivier Broennimann, Mathias W. Rotach, Antoine Guisan, Pirmin Kaufmann, Katrin Zink, Blaise Petitpierre |
| Přispěvatelé: | Universitätsbibliothek |
| Zdroj: | Int J Biometeorol International journal of biometeorology, vol. 61, no. 1, pp. 23-33 |
| Informace o vydavateli: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2016. |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Témata: | Atmospheric Science, EUROPE, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Ragweed, MODELS, Distribution map, Numerical simulation, 01 natural sciences, DISPERSION, Computer Simulation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Ragweed inventory, Original Paper, Air Pollutants, Air Pollutants/analysis, Allergens/analysis, Antigens, Plant/isolation & purification, Environmental Monitoring, Forecasting, France, Models, Theoretical, Plant Extracts/isolation & purification, Reproducibility of Results, EXAMPLE, BIRCH POLLEN, Ecology, AMBROSIA, Plant Extracts, REGIONAL-SCALE, Allergens, Antigens, Plant, 15. Life on land, TRANSPORT, Land use, Pollen, EMISSION, SYSTEM |
| Popis: | One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. |
| Druh dokumentu: | Article Other literature type |
| Popis souboru: | application/pdf |
| Jazyk: | English |
| ISSN: | 1432-1254 0020-7128 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1188-x.pdf https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27317399 https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1188-x.pdf https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-016-1188-x https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_A33C3E640154.P001/REF.pdf https://paperity.org/p/76393163/numerical-ragweed-pollen-forecasts-using-different-source-maps-a-comparison-for-france https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_A33C3E640154 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x https://serval.unil.ch/notice/serval:BIB_A33C3E640154 https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_A33C3E640154.P001/REF.pdf http://nbn-resolving.org/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_A33C3E6401545 |
| Rights: | CC BY |
| Přístupové číslo: | edsair.doi.dedup.....727a3be1ec7cf022d97c4a6c2c5861ec |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably. |
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| ISSN: | 14321254 00207128 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00484-016-1188-x |