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Climate-driven hydrological sensitivity in Estonian catchments: a northern temperate perspective

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Climate-driven hydrological sensitivity in Estonian catchments: a northern temperate perspective
Authors: Oliver Koit, Joonas Pärn, Marlen Hunt, Siim Tarros, Elve Lode, Pamela Abreldaal
Source: Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences, Vol 74, Iss 1, Pp 1-21 (2024)
Publisher Information: Estonian Academy Publishers, 2024.
Publication Year: 2024
Subject Terms: QE1-996.5, flow duration curve (fdc), climate change, surface water/groundwater interaction, autocorrelation function (acf), cross-correlation function (ccf), Geology, hydrological sensitivity, baseflow index (bfi)
Description: The escalating impacts of global climate change significantly affect regional hydrological systems, particularly in northern areas such as Estonia. This study investigates the hydrological sensitivity of Estonian catchments to climatic variability, focusing on the interplay between surface water and groundwater. Using data from 42 river catchments, it employs various statistical methods in hydrology, emphasizing the autocorrelation function, cross-correlation function, baseflow index, and flow duration curve. The analysis spans the years 2012–2022, integrating hydrological, spatial, and water quality parameters. The research identifies four distinct hydrological behavior clusters: plateau, sandstone upland, carbonate upland, and lowland. Key findings include diverse catchment sensitivities to groundwater recharge, the role of baseflow in streamflow stabilization, the memory effect in catchment responses, and insights from the flow duration curve on flow variability and extremes. The LightGBM model, predicting focus parameters, highlights the critical influence of air temperature and snowpack on streamflow characteristics. This study underscores the diverse hydrological sensitivities of Estonian catchments to hydroclimatic changes, emphasizing the importance of considering catchment-specific characteristics in water resource management and policy-making. Contributing to the broader understanding of hydrological processes, it provides valuable insights for future research and environmental planning in the face of climate variability and change.
Document Type: Article
Language: English
ISSN: 1736-4728
DOI: 10.3176/earth.2025.01
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/11012a79990b401e938ac3f616f496dd
Rights: CC BY
Accession Number: edsair.doi.dedup.....5f204b832e97c473af4b22ebf92959c2
Database: OpenAIRE
Description
Abstract:The escalating impacts of global climate change significantly affect regional hydrological systems, particularly in northern areas such as Estonia. This study investigates the hydrological sensitivity of Estonian catchments to climatic variability, focusing on the interplay between surface water and groundwater. Using data from 42 river catchments, it employs various statistical methods in hydrology, emphasizing the autocorrelation function, cross-correlation function, baseflow index, and flow duration curve. The analysis spans the years 2012–2022, integrating hydrological, spatial, and water quality parameters. The research identifies four distinct hydrological behavior clusters: plateau, sandstone upland, carbonate upland, and lowland. Key findings include diverse catchment sensitivities to groundwater recharge, the role of baseflow in streamflow stabilization, the memory effect in catchment responses, and insights from the flow duration curve on flow variability and extremes. The LightGBM model, predicting focus parameters, highlights the critical influence of air temperature and snowpack on streamflow characteristics. This study underscores the diverse hydrological sensitivities of Estonian catchments to hydroclimatic changes, emphasizing the importance of considering catchment-specific characteristics in water resource management and policy-making. Contributing to the broader understanding of hydrological processes, it provides valuable insights for future research and environmental planning in the face of climate variability and change.
ISSN:17364728
DOI:10.3176/earth.2025.01