Improving survival prediction of oesophageal cancer patients treated with external beam radiotherapy for dysphagia
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| Titel: | Improving survival prediction of oesophageal cancer patients treated with external beam radiotherapy for dysphagia |
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| Autoren: | Paul M. Jeene, Steven C. Kuijper, Héctor G. van den Boorn, Sherif Y. El Sharouni, Pètra M. Braam, Vera Oppedijk, Rob H. A. Verhoeven, Maarten C. C. M. Hulshof, Hanneke W. M. van Laarhoven |
| Weitere Verfasser: | MS Radiotherapie, Cancer |
| Quelle: | Jeene, P M, Kuijper, S C, van den Boorn, H C G, el Sharouni, S Y, Braam, P T M, Oppedijk, V, Verhoeven, R H A, Hulshof, M C C M & van Laarhoven, H W M 2022, 'Improving survival prediction of oesophageal cancer patients treated with external beam radiotherapy for dysphagia', Acta Oncologica, vol. 61, no. 7, pp. 849-855. https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2022.2079385 Acta Oncologica, 61, 7, pp. 849-855 |
| Verlagsinformationen: | MJS Publishing, Medical Journals Sweden AB, 2022. |
| Publikationsjahr: | 2022 |
| Schlagwörter: | Palliative Care/methods, oesophageal cancer, Esophageal Neoplasms, Esophageal Neoplasms/complications, decision aid, Deglutition Disorders/etiology, Palliative Care, Netherlands/epidemiology, Hematology, Radboudumc 14: Tumours of the digestive tract RIHS: Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Prediction models, external beam radiotherapy, Decision Support Techniques, 3. Good health, Survival Rate, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Oncology, Radiology Nuclear Medicine and imaging, Area Under Curve, Radiation Oncology - Radboud University Medical Center, Journal Article, Humans, Deglutition Disorders, Netherlands |
| Beschreibung: | The recent POLDER trial investigated the effects of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) on dysphagia caused by incurable oesophageal cancer. An estimated life expectancy of minimally three months was required for inclusion. However, nearly one-third of the included patients died within three months. The aim of this study was to investigate if the use of prediction models could have improved the physician’s estimation of the patient’s survival. Data from the POLDER trial (N = 110) were linked to the Netherlands Cancer Registry to retrieve patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. Two published prediction models (the SOURCE model and Steyerberg model) were used to predict three-month survival for all patients included in the POLDER trial. Predicted survival probabilities were dichotomised and the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the predictive performance. The SOURCE and Steyerberg model had an accuracy of 79% and 64%, and an AUC of 0.76 and 0.60 (p = .017), respectively. The SOURCE model had higher specificity across survival cut-off probabilities, the Steyerberg model had a higher sensitivity beyond the survival probability cut-off of 0.7. Using optimal cut-off probabilities, SOURCE would have wrongfully included 16/110 patients into the POLDER and Steyerberg 34/110. The SOURCE model was found to be a more useful decision aid than the Steyerberg model. Results showed that the SOURCE model could be used for three-month survival predictions for patients that are considered for palliative treatment of dysphagia caused by oesophageal cancer in addition to clinicians’ judgement. |
| Publikationsart: | Article Other literature type |
| Dateibeschreibung: | application/pdf |
| Sprache: | English |
| ISSN: | 1651-226X 0284-186X |
| DOI: | 10.1080/0284186x.2022.2079385 |
| DOI: | 10.6084/m9.figshare.19958514 |
| DOI: | 10.6084/m9.figshare.19958514.v1 |
| Zugangs-URL: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35651320 https://research.vumc.nl/en/publications/5c4afbe9-84c1-4fe5-9bb0-4c1cb1a2418a https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/448394 https://pure.amsterdamumc.nl/en/publications/60b38e62-c552-4cd8-98c6-2d690ed26415 https://doi.org/10.1080/0284186X.2022.2079385 https://repository.ubn.ru.nl//bitstream/handle/2066/251435/251435.pdf https://hdl.handle.net/2066/251435 |
| Rights: | CC BY NC ND CC BY |
| Dokumentencode: | edsair.doi.dedup.....5532339a867c13d20f96cabe500097f7 |
| Datenbank: | OpenAIRE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstract: | The recent POLDER trial investigated the effects of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) on dysphagia caused by incurable oesophageal cancer. An estimated life expectancy of minimally three months was required for inclusion. However, nearly one-third of the included patients died within three months. The aim of this study was to investigate if the use of prediction models could have improved the physician’s estimation of the patient’s survival. Data from the POLDER trial (N = 110) were linked to the Netherlands Cancer Registry to retrieve patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. Two published prediction models (the SOURCE model and Steyerberg model) were used to predict three-month survival for all patients included in the POLDER trial. Predicted survival probabilities were dichotomised and the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the predictive performance. The SOURCE and Steyerberg model had an accuracy of 79% and 64%, and an AUC of 0.76 and 0.60 (p = .017), respectively. The SOURCE model had higher specificity across survival cut-off probabilities, the Steyerberg model had a higher sensitivity beyond the survival probability cut-off of 0.7. Using optimal cut-off probabilities, SOURCE would have wrongfully included 16/110 patients into the POLDER and Steyerberg 34/110. The SOURCE model was found to be a more useful decision aid than the Steyerberg model. Results showed that the SOURCE model could be used for three-month survival predictions for patients that are considered for palliative treatment of dysphagia caused by oesophageal cancer in addition to clinicians’ judgement. |
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| ISSN: | 1651226X 0284186X |
| DOI: | 10.1080/0284186x.2022.2079385 |