Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study
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| Název: | Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study |
|---|---|
| Autoři: | G. R. William Wint, Kamran Khan, Michael A. Johansson, Robin N Thompson, Sarah C. Hill, Andrew J. Tatem, Henrik Salje, Simon I. Hay, Heinrich H. Nax, Birgit Nikolay, Nuno Taveira, Donal Bisanzio, Robert Reiner, Freya M Shearer, Nicholas R Murphy, Stephanie Stasse, Ousmane Faye, Tulio de Oliveira, Nick Golding, Elaine O. Nsoesie, Amadou A. Sall, Oliver G. Pybus, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Matthias Niedrig, John S. Brownstein, Nuno R. Faria, Isaac I. Bogoch, Bary S. R. Pradelski, David L. Smith, Simon Cauchemez |
| Přispěvatelé: | Limouzin, Cécile, DSpace at Cambridge pro (8.1), University of Zurich, Kraemer, Moritz U G |
| Zdroj: | Lancet Infect Dis The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 17 (3) |
| Informace o vydavateli: | Elsevier BV, 2017. |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Témata: | Rural Population, 0301 basic medicine, Urban Population, 610 Medizin, Urban Population/statistics & numerical data, Yellow Fever/transmission, [MATH] Mathematics [math], Yellow Fever/epidemiology, Yellow Fever/mortality, Disease Outbreaks, 03 medical and health sciences, Yellow fever virus/isolation & purification, Aedes, Yellow Fever, Animals, Humans, Rural Population/statistics & numerical data, Models Statistical, Aedes/virology, Immunization Schedule, Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control, 10095 Institute of Sociology, ddc:610, Travel, 0303 health sciences, Models, Statistical, 300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology, Vaccination, 1. No poverty, 2725 Infectious Diseases, Articles, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Yellow fever virus |
| Popis: | BACKGROUND: Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. METHODS: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region. FINDINGS: The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34-0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52-0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13-0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92-0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust. |
| Druh dokumentu: | Article Conference object Other literature type |
| Popis souboru: | application/pdf; application/application/pdf; text; ZORA_pmc5332542_pdf_render.pdf - application/pdf |
| Jazyk: | English |
| ISSN: | 1473-3099 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30513-8 |
| DOI: | 10.17863/cam.78544 |
| DOI: | 10.3929/ethz-b-000123807 |
| DOI: | 10.5167/uzh-260038 |
| DOI: | 10.25646/2636 |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28017559 https://findanexpert.unimelb.edu.au/scholarlywork/1182970-spread-of-yellow-fever-virus-outbreak-in-angola-and-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-2015-16--a-modelling-study https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(16)30513-8/fulltext https://iris.unive.it/handle/10278/3705129 http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(16)30513-8/fulltext https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5332542 https://middleeast.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(16)30513-8/fulltext https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-03513010v1/document https://doi.org/10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30513-8 https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-03513010v1 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/123807 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/123807.1 https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/404216/ |
| Rights: | CC BY |
| Přístupové číslo: | edsair.doi.dedup.....1b429c36c73c55e108f3a250c51137fa |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | BACKGROUND: Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. METHODS: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region. FINDINGS: The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34-0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52-0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13-0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92-0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although other constraints such as vaccine supply and delivery need to be accounted for before such insights can be translated into policy. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 14733099 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30513-8 |