Overview of mean and extreme precipitation climate changes across the Dinaric Alps in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble
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| Název: | Overview of mean and extreme precipitation climate changes across the Dinaric Alps in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble |
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| Autoři: | Sarah Ivušić, Ivan Güttler, Kristian Horvath |
| Zdroj: | Climate Dynamics. 62:10785-10815 |
| Informace o vydavateli: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024. |
| Rok vydání: | 2024 |
| Témata: | Dinaric Alps, Adriatic Sea, climate change, Climate change, regional climate models, Precipitation, EURO-CORDEX, Adriatic, precipitation, Regional climate model, Dinarides |
| Popis: | The study provides a detailed analysis of the climate change projections in mean and extreme precipitation across the Dinaric Alps and the Adriatic coastal area until the end of the 21st century. It uses simulations from the extensive EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble to study precipitation changes considering three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Additionally, the performance and systematic errors of historical simulations are evaluated. The ensemble demonstrates good skill in representing spatial variability and seasonal variations of mean and extreme precipitation. However, biases are evident and substantial across the Dinaric Alps, predominantly wet in winter and autumn, with the exceptions of dry biases in summer. The ensemble overestimates the frequency of heavy and extreme events. Regardless of these inconsistencies, projections clearly suggest a change in precipitation character with an overall intensification and a decrease in wet-day frequency, resulting in a mean precipitation winter increase over northern lowlands, summer decrease across southern parts, and spring and autumn zero-change zone across the Dinaric Alps. Extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify and become more frequent during winter and autumn with robust signals over the lowlands. During summer, the ensemble shows substantial uncertainties, but an intensification nonetheless within a smaller number of extreme events. Overall, the study identifies more consistency in the direction of change than magnitude in individual simulations, with the strongest consensus on precipitation intensification. Limitations include low station density in the observational dataset and an incomplete ensemble size, however, findings align with previous research and observed trends. |
| Druh dokumentu: | Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| ISSN: | 1432-0894 0930-7575 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-024-07476-9 |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-024-07476-9/fulltext.html https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07476-9 |
| Rights: | Springer Nature TDM |
| Přístupové číslo: | edsair.doi.dedup.....06ec096b1614053dcb4dca4b0c588ae5 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | The study provides a detailed analysis of the climate change projections in mean and extreme precipitation across the Dinaric Alps and the Adriatic coastal area until the end of the 21st century. It uses simulations from the extensive EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble to study precipitation changes considering three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Additionally, the performance and systematic errors of historical simulations are evaluated. The ensemble demonstrates good skill in representing spatial variability and seasonal variations of mean and extreme precipitation. However, biases are evident and substantial across the Dinaric Alps, predominantly wet in winter and autumn, with the exceptions of dry biases in summer. The ensemble overestimates the frequency of heavy and extreme events. Regardless of these inconsistencies, projections clearly suggest a change in precipitation character with an overall intensification and a decrease in wet-day frequency, resulting in a mean precipitation winter increase over northern lowlands, summer decrease across southern parts, and spring and autumn zero-change zone across the Dinaric Alps. Extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify and become more frequent during winter and autumn with robust signals over the lowlands. During summer, the ensemble shows substantial uncertainties, but an intensification nonetheless within a smaller number of extreme events. Overall, the study identifies more consistency in the direction of change than magnitude in individual simulations, with the strongest consensus on precipitation intensification. Limitations include low station density in the observational dataset and an incomplete ensemble size, however, findings align with previous research and observed trends. |
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| ISSN: | 14320894 09307575 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-024-07476-9 |