View in EDS

Model‐Based Decomposition of Spatially Varying Temporal Shifts in Seasonal Streamflow Across North Temperate US Rivers.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Model‐Based Decomposition of Spatially Varying Temporal Shifts in Seasonal Streamflow Across North Temperate US Rivers.
Authors: Collins, Kevin M., Schliep, Erin M., Wagner, Tyler, Wikle, Christopher K.
Source: Water Resources Research; Sep2025, Vol. 61 Issue 9, p1-18, 18p
Subject Terms: STREAMFLOW, HYDROLOGY, SEASONS, RIVER ecology, CLIMATE change, BAYESIAN field theory, HYDROLOGIC models
Geographic Terms: PACIFIC Northwest, UNITED States
Abstract: Anthropogenically forced climate shifts disrupt the seasonal behavior of climatic and hydrologic processes. The seasonality of streamflow has significant implications for the ecology of riverine ecosystems and for meeting societal demands for water resources. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of daily streamflow to quantify how the shape of annual hydrographs are changing and to evaluate temporal trends in model‐based hydrologic indices related to flow timing and magnitude shifts. We apply this model to 1,112 gages across the Northern US over the years 1965–2022. We identify large‐scale patterns in temporal changes to streamflow profiles that are consistent with regional changes in hydroclimate, including decreasing seasonal flow variability in the Pacific Northwest and increasing winter flows in the northeastern United States. Within these regions we also observe fine‐scale heterogeneity in streamflow timing and magnitude shifts, both of which have potentially significant implications for riverine ecosystem function and the ecosystem services they provide. Key Points: Bayesian hierarchical model‐based hydrologic indices estimated across 1,112 streamflow gages spanning the Northern USQuantified uncertainty of nonlinear transformations of estimated hydrographs through composition sampling of the posterior distributionsHarmonic analysis identified changes in annual hydrograph timing and magnitude with regional contiguity and fine‐scale heterogeneity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Water Resources Research is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Biomedical Index
Description
Abstract:Anthropogenically forced climate shifts disrupt the seasonal behavior of climatic and hydrologic processes. The seasonality of streamflow has significant implications for the ecology of riverine ecosystems and for meeting societal demands for water resources. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of daily streamflow to quantify how the shape of annual hydrographs are changing and to evaluate temporal trends in model‐based hydrologic indices related to flow timing and magnitude shifts. We apply this model to 1,112 gages across the Northern US over the years 1965–2022. We identify large‐scale patterns in temporal changes to streamflow profiles that are consistent with regional changes in hydroclimate, including decreasing seasonal flow variability in the Pacific Northwest and increasing winter flows in the northeastern United States. Within these regions we also observe fine‐scale heterogeneity in streamflow timing and magnitude shifts, both of which have potentially significant implications for riverine ecosystem function and the ecosystem services they provide. Key Points: Bayesian hierarchical model‐based hydrologic indices estimated across 1,112 streamflow gages spanning the Northern USQuantified uncertainty of nonlinear transformations of estimated hydrographs through composition sampling of the posterior distributionsHarmonic analysis identified changes in annual hydrograph timing and magnitude with regional contiguity and fine‐scale heterogeneity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:00431397
DOI:10.1029/2024WR039500