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Inundation Processes, Barrier Island Breaching, and Structure Impacts During Hurricane Michael (2018).

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Názov: Inundation Processes, Barrier Island Breaching, and Structure Impacts During Hurricane Michael (2018).
Autori: Warner, John C., Sherwood, Christopher R., Carson, Mark, Manzella, Emma, Olabarrieta, Maitane, Subgranon, Arthriya, Klepac, Steven, Zambon, Joseph B., He, Ruoying, Xue, Z. George, Geonova, Muhamad Farid, Hunter, Elias, Moskaitis, Jonathan, Doyle, James D., Amante, Christopher J., Enwright, Nicholas M.
Zdroj: Earth & Space Science; Nov2025, Vol. 12 Issue 11, p1-23, 23p
Predmety: HURRICANE Michael, 2018, MACHINE learning, COMPUTER simulation, SEDIMENT transport, WAVE energy, BEACH erosion, STRUCTURAL failures, WATER levels
Geografický termín: GULF of Mexico, FLORIDA
Abstrakt: We demonstrate the increased ability to forecast hurricane impacts with a coupled numerical modeling system by simulating ocean waves, water levels, currents, sediment transport, and structural damage to predict inundation, coastal morphological change, and residential building impacts. The Coupled‐Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Waves‐Sediment‐Transport (COAWST) modeling system is applied to simulate Hurricane Michael (category 5, 2018) that made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base, FL, in the northern Gulf of America, causing severe devastation and flooding. Atmospheric forcings from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS‐TC) are used to drive the ocean and wave models on a series of nested grids. Results identify that coastal inundation at Mexico Beach is due to surge from winds and waves, supplemented by pulses of infragravity wave motions that propagate landward into the inundation region. Seed lines observed on interior building walls also demonstrate variable changes in water level. In addition, a machine learning model was applied to hindcast structure damages, caused mostly by waves and winds, with a 72% accuracy estimate of substantial damage in proximity of landfall. The storm also created a breach across Cape San Blas, the adjacent barrier spit, due to large surge and low dune elevations. Dune locations with vegetated land cover are shown to reduce wave‐energy dissipation and reduce erosion, whereas locations without land cover had increased breaching potential. The breach occurred during the maximum ocean‐side water level, and the delayed high water on the bay side allowed a pressure gradient to drive flow seaward and promote breach development. Plain Language Summary: Hurricane Michael impacted the areas near Mexico Beach and Cape San Blas along the Florida panhandle in October 2018. The hurricane was the strongest storm on record to impact that region at that time, devastated the infrastructure, and created erosion and breaching along the coastline. Numerical modeling of the storm identified that the surge was enhanced due to the occurrence of lower frequency waves that pulsed water into the region. Damage to structures in the landfall area was accurately predicted with a machine‐learning model. The area of the breach occurred at a low dune elevation, and coastal vegetation on the dune reduced the storm impacts. Key Points: Modeled infragravity wave water levels have stronger agreement to high‐water marks than using phase averaged modelsBarrier island breaching was constrained by land cover and sustained due to ocean versus back‐bay water‐level phase differencesMachine learning model was 72% accurate to hindcast structures impacts near Mexico Beach [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Databáza: Complementary Index
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Abstrakt:We demonstrate the increased ability to forecast hurricane impacts with a coupled numerical modeling system by simulating ocean waves, water levels, currents, sediment transport, and structural damage to predict inundation, coastal morphological change, and residential building impacts. The Coupled‐Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Waves‐Sediment‐Transport (COAWST) modeling system is applied to simulate Hurricane Michael (category 5, 2018) that made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base, FL, in the northern Gulf of America, causing severe devastation and flooding. Atmospheric forcings from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS‐TC) are used to drive the ocean and wave models on a series of nested grids. Results identify that coastal inundation at Mexico Beach is due to surge from winds and waves, supplemented by pulses of infragravity wave motions that propagate landward into the inundation region. Seed lines observed on interior building walls also demonstrate variable changes in water level. In addition, a machine learning model was applied to hindcast structure damages, caused mostly by waves and winds, with a 72% accuracy estimate of substantial damage in proximity of landfall. The storm also created a breach across Cape San Blas, the adjacent barrier spit, due to large surge and low dune elevations. Dune locations with vegetated land cover are shown to reduce wave‐energy dissipation and reduce erosion, whereas locations without land cover had increased breaching potential. The breach occurred during the maximum ocean‐side water level, and the delayed high water on the bay side allowed a pressure gradient to drive flow seaward and promote breach development. Plain Language Summary: Hurricane Michael impacted the areas near Mexico Beach and Cape San Blas along the Florida panhandle in October 2018. The hurricane was the strongest storm on record to impact that region at that time, devastated the infrastructure, and created erosion and breaching along the coastline. Numerical modeling of the storm identified that the surge was enhanced due to the occurrence of lower frequency waves that pulsed water into the region. Damage to structures in the landfall area was accurately predicted with a machine‐learning model. The area of the breach occurred at a low dune elevation, and coastal vegetation on the dune reduced the storm impacts. Key Points: Modeled infragravity wave water levels have stronger agreement to high‐water marks than using phase averaged modelsBarrier island breaching was constrained by land cover and sustained due to ocean versus back‐bay water‐level phase differencesMachine learning model was 72% accurate to hindcast structures impacts near Mexico Beach [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:23335084
DOI:10.1029/2025EA004446