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Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability.

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Titel: Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability.
Autoren: Luo, Binhe, Luo, Dehai, Xiao, Cunde, Chen, Deliang, Simmonds, Ian, Zhang, Xiangdong, Li, Shujun, Zhang, Wenqi, Shi, Jiaqi, Diao, Yina
Quelle: Earth's Future; Oct2025, Vol. 13 Issue 10, p1-14, 14p
Schlagwörter: ATLANTIC multidecadal oscillation, CLIMATE change, EFFECT of human beings on climate change, EXTREME weather
Geografische Kategorien: NORTH America, UNITED States, NORTH Pacific Ocean
Abstract: Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO. Plain Language Summary: The North Amercian winter surface air temperature (SAT) pattern exhibits a more rapid decadal transition between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) dipoles during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989. These decadal variations seem to have a footprint of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability with shortened periods in recent decades likely due to anthropogenic warming. While the sub‐seasonal WWCE and CWWE dipoles are produced by North Pacific blocking events, the rapid decadal alternation between the positive and negative phases of PDO during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of AMO can lead to an accelerated decadal alteration between the winter WWCE and CWWE dipoles, as a result of the winter mean effect of sub‐seasonal WWCE and CWWE dipoles, by regulating North Pacific blocking events. The obtained results are of great significance for understanding the variability and physical cause of North Amercian temperature extreme patterns, droughts and wildfires under greenhouse warming. Key Points: Recent winter temperature shows a faster decadal shift between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) patterns during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989The Warm West‐Cold East and Cold West‐Warm East dipoles are mainly caused by North Pacific blocking eventsThe PDO variability under anthropogenic warming and the positive phase of AMO can lead to the decadal variability of the WWCE (CWWE) dipole [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Beschreibung
Abstract:Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO. Plain Language Summary: The North Amercian winter surface air temperature (SAT) pattern exhibits a more rapid decadal transition between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) dipoles during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989. These decadal variations seem to have a footprint of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability with shortened periods in recent decades likely due to anthropogenic warming. While the sub‐seasonal WWCE and CWWE dipoles are produced by North Pacific blocking events, the rapid decadal alternation between the positive and negative phases of PDO during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of AMO can lead to an accelerated decadal alteration between the winter WWCE and CWWE dipoles, as a result of the winter mean effect of sub‐seasonal WWCE and CWWE dipoles, by regulating North Pacific blocking events. The obtained results are of great significance for understanding the variability and physical cause of North Amercian temperature extreme patterns, droughts and wildfires under greenhouse warming. Key Points: Recent winter temperature shows a faster decadal shift between Warm West‐Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West‐Warm East (CWWE) patterns during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989The Warm West‐Cold East and Cold West‐Warm East dipoles are mainly caused by North Pacific blocking eventsThe PDO variability under anthropogenic warming and the positive phase of AMO can lead to the decadal variability of the WWCE (CWWE) dipole [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:23284277
DOI:10.1029/2025EF006006