Podrobná bibliografie
| Název: |
The Global Influence of ENSO on Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones. |
| Autoři: |
Silvers, L. G., Klotzbach, P. J., Allen, C. J. T., Bell, M. M., Bowen, S. G., Chand, S. S., Ekström, M., Hemmati, M., Schreck, C. J. |
| Zdroj: |
Geophysical Research Letters; 10/16/2025, Vol. 52 Issue 19, p1-11, 11p |
| Témata: |
EL Nino, TROPICAL cyclones, ATMOSPHERIC models, WEATHER, CYCLONE forecasting, LA Nina |
| Geografický termín: |
NORTH Pacific Region, ATLANTIC Ocean, PACIFIC Ocean |
| Abstrakt: |
Tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) is a major source of uncertainty in TC prediction. Here we examine observed basin‐specific relationships between RI and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where RI is defined as a TC strengthening by ≥30 kt within 24 hr. During El Niño, the number of RI events significantly increases in the eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and South Pacific, with the opposite behavior in the North Atlantic. During La Niña, changes in RI occurrence in the Atlantic and Pacific are approximately opposite as in El Niño. The ENSO–Indian Ocean RI relationship is weak. These changes are consistent with environmental conditions modulating RI, including mid‐level moisture, vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures and potential intensity. Because of disagreement between the recently observed La Nina‐like trend and an El Niño‐like trend simulated by climate models, improved model representation of ENSO could reduce future uncertainty in RI projections. Plain Language Summary: El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates both global tropical cyclone activity and the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. Here we focus on rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (defined to be storms intensifying by ≥30 kt in a 24‐hr period) because these storms historically have been more challenging to predict and often are responsible for major damage when they make landfall. For example, over 80% of North Atlantic hurricanes since 1980 that made landfall in the United States (causing >$5 billion US dollars in damage) underwent rapid intensification at some point during their lifetime. These modulations in rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones are linked to environmental conditions, with RI likelihood increasing with increased mid‐level moisture, reduced vertical wind shear (the change in wind speed and direction with height), and increased sea surface temperatures. Here, we examine the observed relationship between ENSO and global rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. El Niño, the positive phase of ENSO, significantly increases rapid intensification in the eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and South Pacific basins, while La Niña shows an approximately opposite relationship, with increased rapid intensification in the North Atlantic. An improved understanding of future ENSO trends is critical for better anticipating future trends in rapid intensification. Key Points: Frequency of rapid intensification differs considerably for individual tropical cyclone basins and different ENSO phasesAtlantic rapid intensification occurs more frequently in La Niña and less frequently in El Niño, with opposite relationship in PacificFuture ENSO trend uncertainty implies ambiguity in projections of future basin and global‐scale rapid intensification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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