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Unexpected costs: the impact of Long-Term Care Insurance on housing prices.

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Názov: Unexpected costs: the impact of Long-Term Care Insurance on housing prices.
Autori: Yang X; School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China., Wen J; Zhejiang Economic Information Center, Hangzhou, China., Du W; Zhejiang Economic Information Center, Hangzhou, China., Hu Z; School of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
Zdroj: Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2025 Nov 13; Vol. 13, pp. 1702221. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Nov 13 (Print Publication: 2025).
Spôsob vydávania: Journal Article
Jazyk: English
Informácie o časopise: Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office
Výrazy zo slovníka MeSH: Housing*/economics , Housing*/statistics & numerical data , Insurance, Long-Term Care*/economics , Insurance, Long-Term Care*/statistics & numerical data , Commerce*/statistics & numerical data, Humans ; China ; Male ; Aged ; Female ; Middle Aged
Abstrakt: Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
Introduction: China's accelerated demographic aging has intensified scholarly interest in the institutional design and socio-economic impacts of the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) pilot program. While its social and healthcare effects have been widely examined, little is known about its broader economic implications, particularly its impact on regional housing markets.
Methods: Using panel data for 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2022, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach to estimate the causal effect of LTCI on housing prices. To ensure robustness, a series of additional tests are conducted, including propensity score matching (PSM), Bacon decomposition, system GMM estimation, placebo tests, and model averaging.
Results: The findings indicate that the implementation of LTCI significantly increases housing prices. The migration of older adults into pilot cities serves as a key mechanism through which LTCI affects housing prices, as improved healthcare accessibility and enhanced living environments attract older adults and stimulate local housing demand. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced in eastern regions, in areas with better environmental quality, and in cities offering home-based care services, while no significant differences are observed between pilot types.
Discussion: These results underscore the secondary economic impacts of long-term care policies. By linking LTCI to the migration of older adults and housing demand, this study deepens understanding of how welfare policies interact with housing markets in aging societies.
(Copyright © 2025 Yang, Wen, Du and Hu.)
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Contributed Indexing: Keywords: Long-Term Care Insurance; aging policies; difference-in-differences; housing prices; older adults migration
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20251201 Date Completed: 20251201 Latest Revision: 20251203
Update Code: 20251203
PubMed Central ID: PMC12657146
DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1702221
PMID: 41323609
Databáza: MEDLINE
Popis
Abstrakt:Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.<br />Introduction: China's accelerated demographic aging has intensified scholarly interest in the institutional design and socio-economic impacts of the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) pilot program. While its social and healthcare effects have been widely examined, little is known about its broader economic implications, particularly its impact on regional housing markets.<br />Methods: Using panel data for 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2022, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach to estimate the causal effect of LTCI on housing prices. To ensure robustness, a series of additional tests are conducted, including propensity score matching (PSM), Bacon decomposition, system GMM estimation, placebo tests, and model averaging.<br />Results: The findings indicate that the implementation of LTCI significantly increases housing prices. The migration of older adults into pilot cities serves as a key mechanism through which LTCI affects housing prices, as improved healthcare accessibility and enhanced living environments attract older adults and stimulate local housing demand. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced in eastern regions, in areas with better environmental quality, and in cities offering home-based care services, while no significant differences are observed between pilot types.<br />Discussion: These results underscore the secondary economic impacts of long-term care policies. By linking LTCI to the migration of older adults and housing demand, this study deepens understanding of how welfare policies interact with housing markets in aging societies.<br /> (Copyright © 2025 Yang, Wen, Du and Hu.)
ISSN:2296-2565
DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2025.1702221