Has the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis become stronger? A comparative analysis for OECD countries and selected late-industrializing Asian economies.
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| Titel: | Has the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis become stronger? A comparative analysis for OECD countries and selected late-industrializing Asian economies. |
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| Autoren: | Akar G; Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Turkiye. Electronic address: gakar@kmu.edu.tr., Kaplan EA; Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey University, Faculty of Kamil Özdağ Science, Department of Data Science and Analytics, Turkiye. Electronic address: eminahmet@gmail.com., Güler İ; Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Academy of Land Registre and Cadastre, Turkiye. Electronic address: ilkay.guler@hbv.edu.tr., Şahin S; İstanbul Yeni Yüzyıl University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Trade Department and Logistics, Turkiye. Electronic address: suna.sahin@yeniyuzyil.edu.tr. |
| Quelle: | Journal of environmental management [J Environ Manage] 2025 Nov; Vol. 394, pp. 127575. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Oct 11. |
| Publikationsart: | Journal Article |
| Sprache: | English |
| Info zur Zeitschrift: | Publisher: Academic Press Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0401664 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1095-8630 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 03014797 NLM ISO Abbreviation: J Environ Manage Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: London ; New York, Academic Press. |
| MeSH-Schlagworte: | Economic Development*, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development ; Carbon Dioxide ; India ; Asia |
| Abstract: | Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The authors received no specific financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Concerns about the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis remain central to debates on whether economic growth inevitably worsens environmental outcomes or eventually leads to sustainability improvements. While the EKC framework has been extensively tested, there is limited comparative evidence on how it manifests across advanced OECD economies versus late-industrializing Asian countries. Motivated by this gap, this study investigates the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, for OECD countries and selected late-industrializing Asian nations, including China and India, from 1990 to 2020. The EKC hypothesis suggests that CO2 emissions initially increase during economic development but eventually decline after a certain income threshold. Using advanced panel econometric techniques such as FMOLS, AMG, CCEMG estimators, and causality analysis, the study examines the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. For OECD countries, the findings support the EKC hypothesis, revealing an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions. This indicates that economic growth initially exacerbates emissions, but they decrease as economies transition to higher income levels. The results also demonstrate a one-way causality from economic growth to emissions and energy consumption and a bidirectional causality between emissions and energy use. In contrast, the EKC hypothesis does not hold for late-industrializing countries like China and India. These nations exhibit a linear relationship where emissions continuously rise with economic growth, reflecting their heavy reliance on fossil fuels and industrial expansion. These contrasting results underscore the need for tailored policy interventions. Developed economies should enhance their shift toward renewable energy, while late-industrializing countries require strategies to decouple economic growth from emissions. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the diverse environmental challenges across different economic contexts and providing actionable insights for sustainable development policies aligned with global emission reduction goals. In the case of late-industrializing countries, the causality analysis indicates a one-way causality from GDP to both CO (Copyright © 2025 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.) |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: CO(2) emissions; Economic growth; Energy consumption; Panel cointegration analysis |
| Substance Nomenclature: | 142M471B3J (Carbon Dioxide) |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20251012 Date Completed: 20251108 Latest Revision: 20251108 |
| Update Code: | 20251108 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127575 |
| PMID: | 41076835 |
| Datenbank: | MEDLINE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstract: | Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The authors received no specific financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.<br />Concerns about the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis remain central to debates on whether economic growth inevitably worsens environmental outcomes or eventually leads to sustainability improvements. While the EKC framework has been extensively tested, there is limited comparative evidence on how it manifests across advanced OECD economies versus late-industrializing Asian countries. Motivated by this gap, this study investigates the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, for OECD countries and selected late-industrializing Asian nations, including China and India, from 1990 to 2020. The EKC hypothesis suggests that CO2 emissions initially increase during economic development but eventually decline after a certain income threshold. Using advanced panel econometric techniques such as FMOLS, AMG, CCEMG estimators, and causality analysis, the study examines the impact of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions. For OECD countries, the findings support the EKC hypothesis, revealing an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions. This indicates that economic growth initially exacerbates emissions, but they decrease as economies transition to higher income levels. The results also demonstrate a one-way causality from economic growth to emissions and energy consumption and a bidirectional causality between emissions and energy use. In contrast, the EKC hypothesis does not hold for late-industrializing countries like China and India. These nations exhibit a linear relationship where emissions continuously rise with economic growth, reflecting their heavy reliance on fossil fuels and industrial expansion. These contrasting results underscore the need for tailored policy interventions. Developed economies should enhance their shift toward renewable energy, while late-industrializing countries require strategies to decouple economic growth from emissions. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the diverse environmental challenges across different economic contexts and providing actionable insights for sustainable development policies aligned with global emission reduction goals. In the case of late-industrializing countries, the causality analysis indicates a one-way causality from GDP to both CO <subscript>2</subscript> emissions and energy consumption, and a two-way causality between CO <subscript>2</subscript> emissions and energy consumption. These findings suggest that economic growth continues to drive higher emissions in these economies, thereby challenging the EKC hypothesis. Specifically, the results imply that OECD countries should consolidate their progress toward net-zero targets by strengthening renewable energy adoption and efficiency measures, while China and India need more ambitious interventions such as carbon pricing, renewable energy incentives, and industrial restructuring.<br /> (Copyright © 2025 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.) |
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| ISSN: | 1095-8630 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.127575 |