Accounting for Misclassification of Cause of Death in Weighted Cumulative Incidence Functions for Causal Analyses.

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Titel: Accounting for Misclassification of Cause of Death in Weighted Cumulative Incidence Functions for Causal Analyses.
Autoren: Edwards JK; Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Shook-Sa BE; Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Bakoyannis G; Department of Biostatistics and Health Data Science, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA., Zivich PN; Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Herce ME; School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA., Cole SR; Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Quelle: Statistics in medicine [Stat Med] 2025 Oct; Vol. 44 (23-24), pp. e70281.
Publikationsart: Journal Article
Sprache: English
Info zur Zeitschrift: Publisher: Wiley Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 8215016 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1097-0258 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 02776715 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Stat Med Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Original Publication: Chichester ; New York : Wiley, c1982-
MeSH-Schlagworte: Causality*, Humans ; Incidence ; Bias ; Computer Simulation ; Cause of Death ; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/mortality ; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/drug therapy ; Models, Statistical ; Cohort Studies ; Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use ; Confidence Intervals
Abstract: Misclassification between causes of death can produce bias in estimated cumulative incidence functions. When estimating causal quantities, such as comparing the cumulative incidence of death due to specific causes under interventions, such bias can lead to suboptimal decision making. Here, a consistent semiparametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function under interventions in settings with misclassification between two event types is presented. The measurement parameters for this estimator can be informed by validation data or expert knowledge. Moreover, a modified bootstrap approach to variance estimation is proposed for confidence interval construction. The proposed estimator was applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS-related mortality in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study under single- versus combination-drug antiretroviral therapy regimens that may be subject to confounding. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and performed well in finite samples via a series of simulation experiments.
(© 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
References: M. D'Amico, E. Agozzino, A. Biagino, A. Simonetti, and P. Marinelli, “Ill‐Defined and Multiple Causes on Death Certificates—A Study of Misclassification in Mortality Statistics,” European Journal of Epidemiology 15, no. 2 (1999): 141–148, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007570405888.
H. H. Kyu, D. Jahagirdar, M. Cunningham, et al., “Accounting for Misclassified and Unknown Cause of Death Data in Vital Registration Systems for Estimating Trends in HIV Mortality,” Journal of the International AIDS Society 24, no. S5 (2021): e25791, https://doi.org/10.1002/jia2.25791.
V. Hernando, P. Sobrino‐Vegas, M. C. Burriel, et al., “Differences in the Causes of Death of HIV‐Positive Patients in a Cohort Study by Data Sources and Coding Algorithms,” AIDS (London, England) 26, no. 14 (2012): 1829–1834, https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e328352ada4.
J. D. Kowalska, N. Friis‐Møller, O. Kirk, et al., “The Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) Project: Initial Results and Evaluation of Methodology,” Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 22, no. 4 (2011): 516–523, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e31821b5332.
N. Ebrahimi, “The Effects of Misclassification of the Actual Cause of Death in Competing Risks Analysis,” Statistics in Medicine 15, no. 14 (1996): 1557–1566, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097‐0258(19960730)15:14<1557::AID‐SIM286>3.0.CO;2‐Q.
G. Bakoyannis and C. T. Yiannoutsos, “Impact of and Correction for Outcome Misclassification in Cumulative Incidence Estimation,” PLoS One 10, no. 9 (2015): e0137454, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137454.
J. K. Edwards, G. Bakoyannis, C. T. Yiannoutsos, M. W. Mburu, and S. R. Cole, “Nonparametric Estimation of the Cumulative Incidence Function Under Outcome Misclassification Using External Validation Data,” Statistics in Medicine 38, no. 29 (2019): 5512–5527, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8380.
S. R. Cole and M. A. Hernán, “Adjusted Survival Curves With Inverse Probability Weights,” Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine 75, no. 1 (2004): 45–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmpb.2003.10.004.
M. A. Hernán and J. M. Robins, “Estimating Causal Effects From Epidemiological Data,” Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 60, no. 7 (2006): 578–586, https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2004.029496.
S. R. Cole and M. A. Hernán, “Constructing Inverse Probability Weights for Marginal Structural Models,” American Journal of Epidemiology 168, no. 6 (2008): 656–664, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn164.
B. M. H. Ozenne, T. H. Scheike, L. Stærk, and T. A. Gerds, “On the Estimation of Average Treatment Effects With Right‐Censored Time to Event Outcome and Competing Risks,” Biometrical Journal 62, no. 3 (2020): 751–763, https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.201800298.
J. G. Young, M. J. Stensrud, E. J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, and M. A. Hernán, “A Causal Framework for Classical Statistical Estimands in Failure‐Time Settings With Competing Events,” Statistics in Medicine 39, no. 8 (2020): 1199–1236, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8471.
P. C. Austin and J. P. Fine, “Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Using the Propensity Score With Competing Risks in Survival Analysis,” Statistics in Medicine 44, no. 5 (2025): e70009, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70009.
B. Van Rompaye, S. Jaffar, and E. Goetghebeur, “Estimation With Cox Models: Cause‐Specific Survival Analysis With Misclassified Cause of Failure,” Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 23, no. 2 (2012): 194–202, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182454cad.
A. S. Meier, B. A. Richardson, and J. P. Hughes, “Discrete Proportional Hazards Models for Mismeasured Outcomes,” Biometrics 59, no. 4 (2003): 947–954, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006‐341X.2003.00109.x.
J. K. Edwards, S. R. Cole, R. D. Moore, W. C. Mathews, M. Kitahata, and J. J. Eron, “Sensitivity Analyses for Misclassification of Cause of Death in the Parametric G‐Formula,” American Journal of Epidemiology 187, no. 8 (2018): 1808–1816, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy028.
J. M. Robins, “Addendum to “a New Approach to Causal Inference in Mortality Studies With a Sustained Exposure Period—Application to Control of the Healthy Worker Survivor Effect”,” Computers and Mathematics With Applications 14, no. 9–12 (1987): 923–945, https://doi.org/10.1016/0898‐1221(87)90238‐0.
N. Wada, L. P. Jacobson, M. Cohen, A. French, J. Phair, and A. Munoz, “Cause‐Specific Mortality Among HIV‐Infected Individuals, by CD4+ Cell Count at HAART Initiation, Compared With HIV‐Uninfected Individuals,” AIDS 28, no. 2 (2014): 257–265, https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000078.
S. Schwarcz, N. A. Hessol, M. A. Spinelli, et al., “Sensitivity and Specificity of the National Death Index for Multiple Causes of Death in People With HIV,” Public Health Reports 136, no. 5 (2021): 595–602, https://doi.org/10.1177/0033354920977840.
W. K. Adih, R. M. Selik, H. I. Hall, A. S. Babu, and R. Song, “Associations and Trends in Cause‐Specific Rates of Death Among Persons Reported With HIV Infection, 23 U.S. Jurisdictions, Through 2011,” Open AIDS Journal 10 (2016): 144–157, https://doi.org/10.2174/1874613601610010144.
C. Fontela, A. Aguinaga, C. Moreno‐Iribas, et al., “Trends and Causes of Mortality in a Population‐Based Cohort of HIV‐Infected Adults in Spain: Comparison With the General Population,” Scientific Reports 10, no. 1 (2020): 8922, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598‐020‐65841‐0.
K. A. Bosh, A. S. Johnson, A. L. Hernandez, et al., “Vital Signs: Deaths Among Persons With Diagnosed HIV Infection, United States, 2010‐2018,” MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 69, no. 46 (2020): 1717–1724, https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6946a1.
H. B. Krentz, R. Lang, J. McMillan, M. Ody, and M. J. Gill, “The Changing Landscape of Both Causes and Locations of Death in a Regional HIV Population 2010–2021,” HIV Medicine 25, no. 5 (2024): 608–613, https://doi.org/10.1111/hiv.13610.
K. LawrenceA, R. Kaslow, R. CharlesR, et al., “Risk Factors for Seroconversion to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Male Homosexuals: Results From the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study,” Lancet 329, no. 8529 (1987): 345–349, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140‐6736(87)91725‐9.
R. A. Kaslow, D. G. Ostrow, R. Detels, et al., “The Multicenter Aids Cohort Study: Rationale, Organization, and Selected Characteristics of the Participants,” American Journal of Epidemiology 126, no. 2 (1987): 310–318, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/126.2.310.
N. Wada, L. P. Jacobson, M. Cohen, A. French, J. Phair, and A. Muñoz, “Cause‐Specific Life Expectancies After 35 Years of Age for Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome‐Infected and Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome‐Negative Individuals Followed Simultaneously in Long‐Term Cohort Studies, 1984–2008,” American Journal of Epidemiology 177, no. 2 (2013): 116–125, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws321.
J. Robins and M. A. Hernán, “Estimation of the Causal Effects of Time‐Varying Exposures,” in Longitudinal Data Analysis (CRC Press, 2009), 553–599.
J. K. Edwards, S. R. Cole, and D. Westreich, “All Your Data Are Always Missing: Incorporating Bias due to Measurement Error Into the Potential Outcomes Framework,” International Journal of Epidemiology 44, no. 4 (2015): 1452–1459, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyu272.
S. R. Cole, B. Lau, J. J. Eron, et al., “Estimation of the Standardized Risk Difference and Ratio in a Competing Risks Framework: Application to Injection Drug Use and Progression to AIDS After Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy,” American Journal of Epidemiology 181, no. 4 (2015): 238–245, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwu122.
J. Xie and C. Liu, “Adjusted Kaplan‐Meier Estimator and Log‐Rank Test With Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting for Survival Data,” Statistics in Medicine 24, no. 20 (2005): 3089–3110, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2174.
S. R. Cole and C. E. Frangakis, “The Consistency Statement in Causal Inference: A Definition or an Assumption?,” Epidemiology 20, no. 1 (2009): 3, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e31818ef366.
S. Greenland and J. M. Robins, “Identifiability, Exchangeability, and Epidemiological Confounding,” International Journal of Epidemiology 15, no. 3 (1986): 413–419, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/15.3.413.
M. L. Petersen, K. E. Porter, S. Gruber, Y. Wang, and M. J. van der Laan, “Positivity,” In Targeted Learning. Springer Series in Statistic (Springer, 2011), https://doi.org/10.1007/978‐1‐4419‐9782‐1_10.
A. Tsiatis, Semiparametric Theory and Missing Data (Springer, 2006), accessed August 10, 2022, https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/0‐387‐37345‐4.
O. Aalen, “Nonparametric Inference in Connection With Multiple Decrement Models,” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 3, no. 1 (1976): 15–27.
O. O. Aalen and S. Johansen, “An Empirical Transition Matrix for Non‐Homogeneous Markov Chains Based on Censored Observations,” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 5, no. 3 (1978): 141–150.
S. R. Seaman and I. R. White, “Review of Inverse Probability Weighting for Dealing With Missing Data,” Statistical Methods in Medical Research 22, no. 3 (2013): 278–295, https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280210395740.
C. J. Howe, S. R. Cole, B. Lau, S. Napravnik, and J. J. J. Eron, “Selection Bias due to Loss to Follow up in Cohort Studies,” Epidemiology 27, no. 1 (2016): 91–97, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000409.
D. Westreich, J. K. Edwards, C. R. Lesko, E. Stuart, and S. R. Cole, “Transportability of Trial Results Using Inverse Odds of Sampling Weights,” American Journal of Epidemiology 186, no. 8 (2017): 1010–1014, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwx164.
A. L. Buchanan, M. G. Hudgens, S. R. Cole, et al., “Generalizing Evidence From Randomized Trials Using Inverse Probability of Sampling Weights,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in Society 181, no. 4 (2018): 1193–1209, https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12357.
M. A. Hernán and J. M. Robins, Causal Inference: What if (Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2020).
J. K. Edwards, S. R. Cole, B. E. Shook‐Sa, P. N. Zivich, N. Zhang, and C. R. Lesko, “When Does Differential Outcome Misclassification Matter for Estimating Prevalence?,” Epidemiology 34, no. 2 (2023): 192–200, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001572.
R. K. Ross, S. R. Cole, J. K. Edwards, et al., “Leveraging External Validation Data: The Challenges of Transporting Measurement Error Parameters,” Epidemiology 35, no. 2 (2024): 196–207, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001701.
J. Ha and A. Tsodikov, “Isotonic Estimation of Survival Under a Misattribution of Cause of Death,” Lifetime Data Analysis 18, no. 1 (2012): 58–79, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985‐011‐9210‐4.
B. Efron and R. J. Tibshirani, An Introduction to the Bootstrap (CRC Press, 1994).
S. Vansteelandt, E. Goetghebeur, M. G. Kenward, and G. Molenberghs, “Ignorance and Uncertainty Regions as Inferential Tools in a Sensitivity Analysis,” Statistica Sinica 16, no. 3 (2006): 953–979.
J. Beyersmann, A. Latouche, A. Buchholz, and M. Schumacher, “Simulating Competing Risks Data in Survival Analysis,” Statistics in Medicine 28, no. 6 (2009): 956–971, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3516.
E. A. Rogena, A. Waruru, P. W. Young, P. Abade, L. M. Nyagah, and E. O. Walong, “A Review of Completeness, Correctness, and Order of Cause of Death Statements Among Decedents With Documented Causes of Death and HIV Status at Two Major Mortuaries in Kenya, 2015,” Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine 73 (2020): 101993, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jflm.2020.101993.
C. E. Frangakis and D. B. Rubin, “Addressing an Idiosyncrasy in Estimating Survival Curves Using Double Sampling in the Presence of Self‐Selected Right Censoring,” Biometrics 57, no. 2 (2001): 333–342, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006‐341X.2001.00333.x.
A. O'Hagan, “Expert Knowledge Elicitation: Subjective but Scientific,” American Statistician 73, no. sup1 (2019): 69–81, https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2018.1518265.
B. E. Shepherd, M. W. Redman, and D. P. Ankerst, “Does Finasteride Affect the Severity of Prostate Cancer? A Causal Sensitivity Analysis,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, no. 484 (2008): 1392–1404, https://doi.org/10.1198/016214508000000706.
S. Greenland, “Bayesian Perspectives for Epidemiologic Research: III. Bias Analysis via Missing‐Data Methods,” International Journal of Epidemiology 38, no. 6 (2009): 1662–1673, https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyp278.
C. A. Gravel, A. Dewanji, P. J. Farrell, and D. Krewski, “A Validation Sampling Approach for Consistent Estimation of Adverse Drug Reaction Risk With Misclassified Right‐Censored Survival Data,” Statistics in Medicine 37, no. 27 (2018): 3887–3903, https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.7854.
Grant Information: R01AI157758 United States NH NIH HHS; K01AI182506 United States NH NIH HHS; K01AI177102 United States NH NIH HHS
Contributed Indexing: Keywords: HIV; causality; mortality; outcome measurement errors
Substance Nomenclature: 0 (Anti-HIV Agents)
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20251007 Date Completed: 20251007 Latest Revision: 20251007
Update Code: 20251007
DOI: 10.1002/sim.70281
PMID: 41055568
Datenbank: MEDLINE
Beschreibung
Abstract:Misclassification between causes of death can produce bias in estimated cumulative incidence functions. When estimating causal quantities, such as comparing the cumulative incidence of death due to specific causes under interventions, such bias can lead to suboptimal decision making. Here, a consistent semiparametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function under interventions in settings with misclassification between two event types is presented. The measurement parameters for this estimator can be informed by validation data or expert knowledge. Moreover, a modified bootstrap approach to variance estimation is proposed for confidence interval construction. The proposed estimator was applied to estimate the cumulative incidence of AIDS-related mortality in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study under single- versus combination-drug antiretroviral therapy regimens that may be subject to confounding. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and performed well in finite samples via a series of simulation experiments.<br /> (© 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
ISSN:1097-0258
DOI:10.1002/sim.70281