A dynamical systems analysis of criminal behavior using national longitudinal survey of youth data.
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| Název: | A dynamical systems analysis of criminal behavior using national longitudinal survey of youth data. |
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| Autoři: | McMillon D; Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.; Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America.; Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America., Morenoff J; Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.; Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.; Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America., Simon C; Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.; Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.; Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.; Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America., Lane E; ApplEcon, LLC., Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America. |
| Zdroj: | PloS one [PLoS One] 2025 Aug 08; Vol. 20 (8), pp. e0324014. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Aug 08 (Print Publication: 2025). |
| Způsob vydávání: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Informace o časopise: | Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science |
| Výrazy ze slovníku MeSH: | Criminal Behavior* , Crime*/statistics & numerical data , Criminals*/statistics & numerical data, Humans ; Male ; Female ; Longitudinal Studies ; Adolescent ; United States ; Black or African American ; Child ; White |
| Abstrakt: | Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Building on previous work on the spread and sustenance of crime, we construct and analyze a dynamical systems model of criminal involvement, arrest, desistance, and rehabilitation to be estimated empirically using interviews in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We examine how marginal increases in flows between states interact to decrease or increase the long-run level of crime, and whether this varies by subgroup. We study how observed racial disparities along certain pathways interact to generate macro-level disparities in criminal involvement as measured by arrest and self-report. Finally, we discuss the implications of the model for a broader policy debate on crime control and for competing explanations of the Black-White gap in criminal involvement. We find, among other conclusions, that marginal independent increases in first-time arrest rates (but not arrest rates for repeat offenders) increase long-run crime for all subgroups; that long-run crime levels for Black men are most sensitive to initial flows into crime and arrest and to rehabilitation; and that among people with no arrest history, Black women are significantly more likely than other subgroups to desist the following year. (Copyright: © 2025 McMillon et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.) |
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| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20250808 Date Completed: 20250808 Latest Revision: 20250814 |
| Update Code: | 20250814 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC12334011 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0324014 |
| PMID: | 40779580 |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.<br />Building on previous work on the spread and sustenance of crime, we construct and analyze a dynamical systems model of criminal involvement, arrest, desistance, and rehabilitation to be estimated empirically using interviews in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. We examine how marginal increases in flows between states interact to decrease or increase the long-run level of crime, and whether this varies by subgroup. We study how observed racial disparities along certain pathways interact to generate macro-level disparities in criminal involvement as measured by arrest and self-report. Finally, we discuss the implications of the model for a broader policy debate on crime control and for competing explanations of the Black-White gap in criminal involvement. We find, among other conclusions, that marginal independent increases in first-time arrest rates (but not arrest rates for repeat offenders) increase long-run crime for all subgroups; that long-run crime levels for Black men are most sensitive to initial flows into crime and arrest and to rehabilitation; and that among people with no arrest history, Black women are significantly more likely than other subgroups to desist the following year.<br /> (Copyright: © 2025 McMillon et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.) |
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| ISSN: | 1932-6203 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0324014 |