Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents.
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| Titel: | Research on the predictive performance of using ROC curve to evaluate axial length for myopia in children and adolescents. |
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| Autoren: | Mingming C; Capital Institute of Pediatrics, 2 YaBao Rd, Beijing, 100020, China.; Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Child Development and Nutriomics, Beijing, China., Zhongxin Z; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, China., Yuting G; Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan, China., Xinnan Z; Department of Growth and Development, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China., Shaoli L; Child Health Big Data Research Center, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.; Child Healthcare Center, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China., Junting L; Child Health Big Data Research Center, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.; Child Healthcare Center, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China., Fangfang C; Department of Epidemiology, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China., Zhou Y; Department of Ophthalmology, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China., Tao Y; Department of Science and Technology, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China., Yanyu L; Experiment Center, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China., Hao Z; Department of Ophthalmology, Capital Center for Children's Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100020, China. 40785840@qq.com. |
| Quelle: | BMC ophthalmology [BMC Ophthalmol] 2025 Apr 10; Vol. 25 (1), pp. 195. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Apr 10. |
| Publikationsart: | Journal Article; Multicenter Study |
| Sprache: | English |
| Info zur Zeitschrift: | Publisher: BioMed Central Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 100967802 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2415 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 14712415 NLM ISO Abbreviation: BMC Ophthalmol Subsets: MEDLINE |
| Imprint Name(s): | Original Publication: London : BioMed Central, [2001- |
| MeSH-Schlagworte: | Myopia*/diagnosis , Myopia*/epidemiology , Myopia*/physiopathology , Axial Length, Eye*/pathology , ROC Curve* , Refraction, Ocular*/physiology, Humans ; Child ; Male ; Adolescent ; Female ; Visual Acuity/physiology ; Predictive Value of Tests |
| Abstract: | Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The research was performed in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Capital Institute of Pediatrics under the code (NO.SHERLL2022043). Informed consent was obtained from children’s parents or guardians. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Background: Assessing myopia risk can help clinicians intervene as early as possible. There is still a lack of reference values for predicting myopia based on the axial length (AL) of children. The study aims to explore the relationship between AL and myopia, and to predict the risk thresholds of AL in children of different age and sex groups. Method: Visual acuity examination, refractive screening and ocular axis examination of 2388 children aged 7-18 (4776 eyes) from 8 schools in a certain area of Beijing were used as the data source, we evaluated the predictive ability of AL for myopia in children using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and constructed Logistic Regression to analyze the reference value of AL threshold for children of different age and sex groups. Results: The myopia rate among children and adolescents was 51.47%. The AL and SE were significantly correlated by Spearman correlation coefficient(P < 0.01). Predicting myopia in children based on their AL has a good reference value(AUC = 0.73). Children with AL ≥ 23.92 mm have a significantly higher myopia rate than those with AL < 23.92 mm (χ²=661.14, P < 0.01). The difference in AL among children of different age groups is statistically significant, and the AL shows an increasing trend with age. Among them, the AL threshold for children aged 7-12 is 23.67 mm, while that for children aged 13-15 is 23.92 mm, and children aged 16-18 is 24.42 mm. Children with an AL ≥ the threshold have a 4.41-fold higher risk of myopia than those with an AL < the threshold (OR = 4.41, 95% CI = 3.88-5.01). There is a statistically significant difference in AL between children of different sex groups. The male group has a higher AL(24.27 mm) than the females (23.71 mm), and children with AL ≥ threshold have a 5.58-fold higher risk of myopia than those with AL < threshold (OR = 5.58, 95% CI = 4.93-6.33). Conclusion: The correlation between SE and AL was strong in school children. Age-specific and sex-specific AL threshold for myopia might provide reference data as a useful indicator, aid in identifying and monitoring individuals at risk of myopia and have utility in population-based screening for myopia in children and adolescents. (© 2025. The Author(s).) |
| References: | Scand J Med Sci Sports. 2021 Jun;31(6):1183-1195. (PMID: 33576534) Front Public Health. 2022 May 30;10:833960. (PMID: 35712300) Korean J Ophthalmol. 2020 Apr;34(2):126-132. (PMID: 32233146) Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2021 May;41(3):532-540. (PMID: 33792977) J Curr Ophthalmol. 2018 Nov 10;31(2):206-213. (PMID: 31317101) Ophthalmic Res. 2023;66(1):1213-1221. (PMID: 37666230) BMJ Open. 2024 Dec 20;14(12):e084891. (PMID: 39806724) Int J Ophthalmol. 2024 Oct 18;17(10):1887-1897. (PMID: 39430027) Zhonghua Yan Ke Za Zhi. 2022 Feb 11;58(2):96-102. (PMID: 35144349) Clin Exp Optom. 2024 May;107(4):428-433. (PMID: 37674270) Graefes Arch Clin Exp Ophthalmol. 2023 May;261(5):1493-1501. (PMID: 36449076) J Clin Med. 2022 Jul 29;11(15):. (PMID: 35956029) Br J Ophthalmol. 2023 Feb;107(2):167-175. (PMID: 34531198) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2021 Apr 28;62(5):3. (PMID: 33909035) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2019 Jul 1;60(8):3091-3099. (PMID: 31323091) Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 4;12(1):18644. (PMID: 36333404) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2024 Nov 4;65(13):19. (PMID: 39508774) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2023 May 1;64(6):6. (PMID: 37126357) PLoS One. 2015 Feb 18;10(2):e0111766. (PMID: 25693186) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2023 May 1;64(6):1. (PMID: 37126361) Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2021 May;41(3):496-511. (PMID: 33960004) Clin Exp Rheumatol. 2023 Mar;41(2):330-339. (PMID: 36861746) Prog Retin Eye Res. 2018 Jan;62:134-149. (PMID: 28951126) Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2019 Feb 28;60(3):M20-M30. (PMID: 30817826) Lancet Public Health. 2020 Dec;5(12):e682-e691. (PMID: 33271081) Graefes Arch Clin Exp Ophthalmol. 2019 May;257(5):1045-1053. (PMID: 30903312) Front Pediatr. 2022 Sep 06;10:859944. (PMID: 36147807) J Optom. 2020 Apr - Jun;13(2):128-136. (PMID: 31992535) BMC Ophthalmol. 2024 May 6;24(1):207. (PMID: 38711043) Br J Ophthalmol. 2025 Feb 24;109(3):362-371. (PMID: 39317432) BMJ Open Ophthalmol. 2024 Oct 23;9(1):. (PMID: 39448072) Children (Basel). 2024 Jan 23;11(2):. (PMID: 38397251) Zhonghua Yan Ke Za Zhi. 2024 Nov 11;60(11):937-942. (PMID: 39505381) |
| Grant Information: | BMR2021-3 Public service development and reform pilot project of Beijing Medical Research Institute |
| Contributed Indexing: | Keywords: Axial length(AL); Children; Logistic regression; Myopia; ROC curve |
| Entry Date(s): | Date Created: 20250411 Date Completed: 20250411 Latest Revision: 20250416 |
| Update Code: | 20250417 |
| PubMed Central ID: | PMC11983982 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12886-025-04017-8 |
| PMID: | 40211259 |
| Datenbank: | MEDLINE |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstract: | Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The research was performed in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Capital Institute of Pediatrics under the code (NO.SHERLL2022043). Informed consent was obtained from children’s parents or guardians. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.<br />Background: Assessing myopia risk can help clinicians intervene as early as possible. There is still a lack of reference values for predicting myopia based on the axial length (AL) of children. The study aims to explore the relationship between AL and myopia, and to predict the risk thresholds of AL in children of different age and sex groups.<br />Method: Visual acuity examination, refractive screening and ocular axis examination of 2388 children aged 7-18 (4776 eyes) from 8 schools in a certain area of Beijing were used as the data source, we evaluated the predictive ability of AL for myopia in children using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and constructed Logistic Regression to analyze the reference value of AL threshold for children of different age and sex groups.<br />Results: The myopia rate among children and adolescents was 51.47%. The AL and SE were significantly correlated by Spearman correlation coefficient(P < 0.01). Predicting myopia in children based on their AL has a good reference value(AUC = 0.73). Children with AL ≥ 23.92 mm have a significantly higher myopia rate than those with AL < 23.92 mm (χ²=661.14, P < 0.01). The difference in AL among children of different age groups is statistically significant, and the AL shows an increasing trend with age. Among them, the AL threshold for children aged 7-12 is 23.67 mm, while that for children aged 13-15 is 23.92 mm, and children aged 16-18 is 24.42 mm. Children with an AL ≥ the threshold have a 4.41-fold higher risk of myopia than those with an AL < the threshold (OR = 4.41, 95% CI = 3.88-5.01). There is a statistically significant difference in AL between children of different sex groups. The male group has a higher AL(24.27 mm) than the females (23.71 mm), and children with AL ≥ threshold have a 5.58-fold higher risk of myopia than those with AL < threshold (OR = 5.58, 95% CI = 4.93-6.33).<br />Conclusion: The correlation between SE and AL was strong in school children. Age-specific and sex-specific AL threshold for myopia might provide reference data as a useful indicator, aid in identifying and monitoring individuals at risk of myopia and have utility in population-based screening for myopia in children and adolescents.<br /> (© 2025. The Author(s).) |
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| ISSN: | 1471-2415 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12886-025-04017-8 |