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Reassessing general explanations for long-run change in internal migration: Insights from Norway.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Reassessing general explanations for long-run change in internal migration: Insights from Norway.
Authors: Shuttleworth I; Queen's University Belfast., Leknes S; Statistics Norway., Thomas MJ; Statistics Norway.
Source: Population studies [Popul Stud (Camb)] 2025 Nov; Vol. 79 (3), pp. 551-574. Date of Electronic Publication: 2025 Mar 03.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Language: English
Journal Info: Publisher: Routledge Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0376427 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1477-4747 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00324728 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Popul Stud (Camb) Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s): Publication: London : Routledge
Original Publication: London [etc.] Population Investigation Committee [etc.]
MeSH Terms: Population Dynamics*/statistics & numerical data , Emigration and Immigration*/statistics & numerical data, Norway ; Humans ; Female ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Socioeconomic Factors ; Aged
Abstract: Internal migration fell in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky's super-advanced society), changed values and preferences (secular rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (second demographic transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests (using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis) and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of changes in population composition and behaviours has been to increase migration: the upward effects of a more educated population and changed household structures have outweighed the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.
Contributed Indexing: Keywords: Norway; Oaxaca–Blinder; Zelinsky stage model; business cycle; immigration; internal migration; population ageing; population registers; second demographic transition; secular rootedness
Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20250303 Date Completed: 20251103 Latest Revision: 20251103
Update Code: 20251104
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2025.2461789
PMID: 40028893
Database: MEDLINE
Description
Abstract:Internal migration fell in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky's super-advanced society), changed values and preferences (secular rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (second demographic transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests (using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis) and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of changes in population composition and behaviours has been to increase migration: the upward effects of a more educated population and changed household structures have outweighed the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.
ISSN:1477-4747
DOI:10.1080/00324728.2025.2461789