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Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones Over Vanuatu: A Case for Informing Disaster Planning and Adaptation Strategies.

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Titel: Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones Over Vanuatu: A Case for Informing Disaster Planning and Adaptation Strategies.
Autoren: Sharma, Krishneel K.1 (AUTHOR) krishneel.sharma@uon.edu.au, Chand, Savin S.1 (AUTHOR), Biswas, Soubhik1 (AUTHOR)
Quelle: International Journal of Climatology. 11/30/2025, Vol. 45 Issue 14, p1-21. 21p.
Schlagwörter: *CLIMATE change, *TROPICAL cyclones, *SUSTAINABLE development, *EMERGENCY management, *COUNTRIES
Geografische Kategorien: VANUATU
Abstract: This study examines the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) in Vanuatu, one of the world's most disaster‐prone countries. Here, TCs often result in costly outcomes to the national economy, such as damage to buildings and critical infrastructure, disruptions to livelihoods, food security, health and economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture. The severity of TCs in Vanuatu—such as severe TC Kevin and Judy, the two back‐to‐back TCs that impacted the country in March 2023—is expected to worsen, compromising the nation's ability to manage such future events. A comprehensive understanding of current and future TC impacts is essential to inform disaster management and adaptation planning strategies across different sectors and enhance the country's economic and community resilience. Reliable historical TC data from the South Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database were analysed from 1970 to 2021. Results show a ~28% decrease in TC frequency and ~15% increase in mean TC intensity (maximum sustained wind speed) between 1971‐1995 and 1996‐2021; changes in both metrics are statistically significant (at the 90% significance level). Future TC data from climate model experiments, such as those from the Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP), are at a relatively coarse resolution and substantially underestimate metrics like TC intensity required for decision‐making purposes at finer spatial scales. Nonetheless, we developed a method that utilises TCs detected and tracked using the Okubo‐Weiss‐Zeta (OWZ) scheme to demonstrate the feasibility of assessing TC impacts for Vanuatu. This study uses consolidated climate model data from the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) archive to estimate future TC frequencies and intensities under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5, i.e., high greenhouse gas). The projections were evaluated for all TCs (categories 1–5) and severe TCs (categories 3–5) at national and provincial levels. Overall, the projections indicate a decline in TC frequencies (~12.0%) and an increase in TC intensities (~1.0%), with low‐to‐medium confidence, in a future warming climate relative to the current climate. While complementing previous findings for the broader Pacific region, these projections additionally offer detailed sub‐regional information on TC intensity and frequency that can guide adaptation strategies to mitigate TC impacts in Vanuatu for decision‐makers such as environmental managers and city planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Datenbank: Academic Search Index
Beschreibung
Abstract:This study examines the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) in Vanuatu, one of the world's most disaster‐prone countries. Here, TCs often result in costly outcomes to the national economy, such as damage to buildings and critical infrastructure, disruptions to livelihoods, food security, health and economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture. The severity of TCs in Vanuatu—such as severe TC Kevin and Judy, the two back‐to‐back TCs that impacted the country in March 2023—is expected to worsen, compromising the nation's ability to manage such future events. A comprehensive understanding of current and future TC impacts is essential to inform disaster management and adaptation planning strategies across different sectors and enhance the country's economic and community resilience. Reliable historical TC data from the South Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database were analysed from 1970 to 2021. Results show a ~28% decrease in TC frequency and ~15% increase in mean TC intensity (maximum sustained wind speed) between 1971‐1995 and 1996‐2021; changes in both metrics are statistically significant (at the 90% significance level). Future TC data from climate model experiments, such as those from the Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP), are at a relatively coarse resolution and substantially underestimate metrics like TC intensity required for decision‐making purposes at finer spatial scales. Nonetheless, we developed a method that utilises TCs detected and tracked using the Okubo‐Weiss‐Zeta (OWZ) scheme to demonstrate the feasibility of assessing TC impacts for Vanuatu. This study uses consolidated climate model data from the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) archive to estimate future TC frequencies and intensities under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5, i.e., high greenhouse gas). The projections were evaluated for all TCs (categories 1–5) and severe TCs (categories 3–5) at national and provincial levels. Overall, the projections indicate a decline in TC frequencies (~12.0%) and an increase in TC intensities (~1.0%), with low‐to‐medium confidence, in a future warming climate relative to the current climate. While complementing previous findings for the broader Pacific region, these projections additionally offer detailed sub‐regional information on TC intensity and frequency that can guide adaptation strategies to mitigate TC impacts in Vanuatu for decision‐makers such as environmental managers and city planners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:08998418
DOI:10.1002/joc.70108