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基于土地利用模拟的江西省生态韧性评价与驱动因素研究.

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Title: 基于土地利用模拟的江西省生态韧性评价与驱动因素研究.
Alternate Title: Assessment of ecological resilience and driving factors in Jiangxi Province based on land use simulation.
Authors: 孙可可1 skeke521@126.com, 李宇航1, 吴伟成1 wuwch@ecut.edu.cn, 李晓月2
Source: Research of Soil & Water Conservation. Dec2025, Vol. 32 Issue 6, p370-380. 11p.
Subject Terms: *ECOLOGICAL resilience, *LAND use, *PROVINCES, *SPATIOTEMPORAL processes, *SUSTAINABLE development, ENVIRONMENTAL protection planning
Geographic Terms: JIANGXI Sheng (China)
Abstract (English): [Objective] Under the background of territorial spatial planning, optimizing land use patterns to enhance ecological resilience holds significant importance for promoting high-quality development in Jiangxi Province. [Methods] Based on the resistance-adaptability-resilience framework, the GMOP-PLUS model was employed to analyze and project the spatiotemporal variations of ecological resilience in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2035, and the geodetector was used to explore the driving factors of ecological resilience. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, construction land in Jiangxi Province increased the most, expanding by 2 578.50 km², while forest, grassland, and cultivated land showed declining trends. By 2035, land use changes basically continued the trend from 2000 to 2020, with a decrease in cultivated land and an increase in water bodies and construction land. Variations in grassland and forest differed. Under the economic development scenario, grassland area increased most significantly (2 127.96 km²), while under the ecological protection scenario, forest area expanded the most (6 137.82 km²). (2) From 2000 to 2020, ecological resilience in Jiangxi Province generally declined, with the average value decreasing from 0.432 4 to 0.4279, showing a spatial pattern of "high around the periphery and low in the center" and clustering characteristics. Compared to other scenarios, ecological resilience under the ecological protection scenario in 2035 improved most significantly, increasing by 6.59% compared to 2020. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the spatial differentiation of ecological resilience was mainly influenced by elevation (X1), human impact index (X1), and slope (X2), with average q values of 0.3960, 0.2836, and 0.117 8, respectively. Interaction results showed that the interaction between X1 and X7 had the most significant effect, with a q value of 0.708 0. [Conclusion] Ecological resilience varies greatly within Jiangxi Province and has generally declined in recent years. Future land management can adopt a coordinated economic and ecological development model to achieve sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Abstract (Chinese): [目的] 国土空间规划背景下, 如何优化土地利用布局提高生态韧性, 对推动江西省高质量发展有重要意义。 [方法] 基于抵抗力——适应力——恢复力的框架, 利用 GMOP-PLUS 模型分析、预测 2000-2035 年江西省生态韧性的时空变化, 通过地理探测器探讨了生态韧性的驱动因素。 [结果] (1) 2000—2020 年江西省建设用地增幅最大, 面积增加 2578.50 km², 林草地和耕地呈下降趋势。2035 年土地利用变化基本延续 2000—2020 年的趋势, 耕地面积减少, 水域和建设用地面积增加。草地与林地的变化存在差异, 经济发展情景下草地面积增幅最大增加了 2127.96 km². 生态保护情景下林地扩张最多面积增加了 6137.82 km²; (2) 2000-2020 年江西省生态韧性整体下降, 均值由 0.4324 降至 0.4279,呈现 “外围高、中心低” 的空间格局和聚类特征。与其他情景相比, 2035 年生态保护情景生态韧性提升最为明显, 较 2020 年增加 6.59%。 (3) 2000-2020 年生态韧性的空间分异主要受高程 (X) 、人为影响指数 (X) 和坡度 (X) 的影响, q 均值分别为 0.396 0,0.283 6,0.1178。交互结果显示 X 与 X 的均值为 0.7080,交互作用最为显著。 [结论] 江西省内生态韧性差异较大, 且近年来整体下降, 未来土地管理可采用经济与生态协同发展的模式, 以实现可持续发展的目标。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Academic Search Index
Description
Abstract:[Objective] Under the background of territorial spatial planning, optimizing land use patterns to enhance ecological resilience holds significant importance for promoting high-quality development in Jiangxi Province. [Methods] Based on the resistance-adaptability-resilience framework, the GMOP-PLUS model was employed to analyze and project the spatiotemporal variations of ecological resilience in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2035, and the geodetector was used to explore the driving factors of ecological resilience. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, construction land in Jiangxi Province increased the most, expanding by 2 578.50 km², while forest, grassland, and cultivated land showed declining trends. By 2035, land use changes basically continued the trend from 2000 to 2020, with a decrease in cultivated land and an increase in water bodies and construction land. Variations in grassland and forest differed. Under the economic development scenario, grassland area increased most significantly (2 127.96 km²), while under the ecological protection scenario, forest area expanded the most (6 137.82 km²). (2) From 2000 to 2020, ecological resilience in Jiangxi Province generally declined, with the average value decreasing from 0.432 4 to 0.4279, showing a spatial pattern of "high around the periphery and low in the center" and clustering characteristics. Compared to other scenarios, ecological resilience under the ecological protection scenario in 2035 improved most significantly, increasing by 6.59% compared to 2020. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the spatial differentiation of ecological resilience was mainly influenced by elevation (X1), human impact index (X1), and slope (X2), with average q values of 0.3960, 0.2836, and 0.117 8, respectively. Interaction results showed that the interaction between X1 and X7 had the most significant effect, with a q value of 0.708 0. [Conclusion] Ecological resilience varies greatly within Jiangxi Province and has generally declined in recent years. Future land management can adopt a coordinated economic and ecological development model to achieve sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:10053409
DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.06.005