View in EDS

Performance of CMIP6 Models in Capturing Summer Maximum Temperature Variability over China.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Performance of CMIP6 Models in Capturing Summer Maximum Temperature Variability over China.
Authors: Liu, Sikai1 (AUTHOR), Zhou, Juan1,2 (AUTHOR) jzhou@cuit.edu.cn, Wen, Jun1,3 (AUTHOR), Yang, Guobin1,3 (AUTHOR), Chen, Yangruixue1,2 (AUTHOR), Li, Xing1,3 (AUTHOR), Li, Xiao1,2 (AUTHOR)
Source: Atmosphere. Aug2025, Vol. 16 Issue 8, p925. 13p.
Subject Terms: *SEASONAL temperature variations, *TEMPERATURE, *EXTREME weather, *FORECASTING, *ATMOSPHERIC models
Geographic Terms: CHINA
Abstract: Previous research has primarily focused on assessing seasonal mean or annual extreme climate events, whereas intraseasonal variability in extreme climate has received comparatively little attention, despite its importance for understanding short-term climate dynamics and associated risks. This study evaluates the performance of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing summer maximum temperature (Tmax) variability across China during 1979–2014, with the variability defined as the standard deviation of daily Tmax anomalies for each summer. Results show that most CMIP6 models fail to reproduce the observed north–south gradient of Tmax variability with significant regional biases and limited agreement on temporal trends. The multi-model ensemble (MME) outperforms most individual models in terms of root-mean-square error and spatial correlation, but it still under-represents the observed temporal trends, especially over southeastern and central China. Taylor diagram analysis reveals that EC-Earth3, GISS-E2-1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and the MME perform relatively well in capturing the spatial characteristics of Tmax variability, whereas MIROC6 shows the poorest performance. These findings highlight the persistent limitations in simulating intraseasonal Tmax variability and underscore the need for improved model representations of regional climate dynamics over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Academic Search Index
Description
Abstract:Previous research has primarily focused on assessing seasonal mean or annual extreme climate events, whereas intraseasonal variability in extreme climate has received comparatively little attention, despite its importance for understanding short-term climate dynamics and associated risks. This study evaluates the performance of nine climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing summer maximum temperature (Tmax) variability across China during 1979–2014, with the variability defined as the standard deviation of daily Tmax anomalies for each summer. Results show that most CMIP6 models fail to reproduce the observed north–south gradient of Tmax variability with significant regional biases and limited agreement on temporal trends. The multi-model ensemble (MME) outperforms most individual models in terms of root-mean-square error and spatial correlation, but it still under-represents the observed temporal trends, especially over southeastern and central China. Taylor diagram analysis reveals that EC-Earth3, GISS-E2-1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and the MME perform relatively well in capturing the spatial characteristics of Tmax variability, whereas MIROC6 shows the poorest performance. These findings highlight the persistent limitations in simulating intraseasonal Tmax variability and underscore the need for improved model representations of regional climate dynamics over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:20734433
DOI:10.3390/atmos16080925