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Solar activity and ionospheric variation: A comprehensive study using hurst exponent and probability density functions analysis.

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Title: Solar activity and ionospheric variation: A comprehensive study using hurst exponent and probability density functions analysis.
Authors: Momeni, Mahdi1 (AUTHOR) momeny8902@gmail.com, Migoya-Orué, Yenca2 (AUTHOR) yenca@ictp.it
Source: Advances in Space Research. May2025, Vol. 75 Issue 10, p7668-7683. 16p.
Subject Terms: *PROBABILITY density function, *KURTOSIS, *SOLAR activity, *SPACE environment, *TELECOMMUNICATION systems
Abstract: This study analyzes the ionospheric dynamics during the solar maximum of 2014 and the solar minimum of 2019, focusing on Vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) and key solar and geomagnetic indices, including SYM-H, X-ray flux, and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. By employing the Hurst exponent and Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis, we quantify the persistence and correlation properties of ionospheric fluctuations under varying solar conditions. The Hurst exponent reveals significant long-range correlations in vTEC, indicating a high level of persistence, particularly during solar minimum. In contrast, solar maximum conditions exhibit more unstable behavior across all indices, with lower Hurst values suggesting enhanced short-term irregularities. PDF analysis shows leptokurtic distributions, highlighting the prevalence of extreme events, especially during heightened solar activity. Our findings underscore the complex interplay between solar activity and ionospheric behavior, providing valuable insights for improving predictive models related to space weather impacts on communication and navigation systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Academic Search Index
Description
Abstract:This study analyzes the ionospheric dynamics during the solar maximum of 2014 and the solar minimum of 2019, focusing on Vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) and key solar and geomagnetic indices, including SYM-H, X-ray flux, and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. By employing the Hurst exponent and Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis, we quantify the persistence and correlation properties of ionospheric fluctuations under varying solar conditions. The Hurst exponent reveals significant long-range correlations in vTEC, indicating a high level of persistence, particularly during solar minimum. In contrast, solar maximum conditions exhibit more unstable behavior across all indices, with lower Hurst values suggesting enhanced short-term irregularities. PDF analysis shows leptokurtic distributions, highlighting the prevalence of extreme events, especially during heightened solar activity. Our findings underscore the complex interplay between solar activity and ionospheric behavior, providing valuable insights for improving predictive models related to space weather impacts on communication and navigation systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:02731177
DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.060