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Evaluation of China's power system evolution path based on social-technological system theory.

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Název: Evaluation of China's power system evolution path based on social-technological system theory.
Autoři: NIE Yan1 nieyan@lzu.edu.cn, ZHANG Guo-xing1,2 guoxingzh@lzu.edu.cn
Zdroj: China Population Resources & Environment. 2020, Vol. 30 Issue 11, p87-97. 11p.
Abstrakt: Evaluation of the low-carbon evolution of China's power system based on the theory of social technical system is helpful for the dynamic analysis of the development law of China's power system, revealing its evolution mechanism, and providing a theoretical basis for the decision makers to make power development strategies. From the perspective of landscape level, regime level and niche level, this paper constructs a set of comprehensive evaluation indexes by integrating the evolutionary entropy weight method and the policy variable weight function. We evaluate the evolution path of power system in combination with the power policy in different development stages, revealing the effect of internal vitality system, external factors and their interaction on the development of the system. The results show that the external environment is slow and stable in the evolution process, but the external environment is less robust to the major events of the power system. The formation mechanism of power policy needs to be constructed urgently. The regime level has a path-locking effect; its development is relatively stable and sensitive to policy constraints, so we should pay attention to the game relationship between fossil energy and non-fossil energy, and strengthen the coordinated development of regional energy. The niche level is particularly active, and it occupies a number of important indicators and has a strong positive impact on system evolution. On the contrary, the two indicators of international influence and public participation in the external environment have inhibitory effects on system evolution. On the whole, the evaluation index framework can better reflect the evolution characteristics of the process of China's power system. Based on the above analysis results, this paper believes that in the process of low-carbon evolution of China's power system, when the innovative technology is mature, we should appropriately reduce government policy intervention and follow the market rules of the government-led country. In the future, we should speed up the construction of niche demonstration projects, accelerate the certification of innovative technology ad the supervision of niche projects. From the perspective of low-carbon development, we should reduce the international impact of the negative index to improve the low-carbon evolution rate of the system and promote the low-carbon evolution of the whole power system. It is hoped that the results of this paper can be used as a reference in theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Databáze: Academic Search Index
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Abstrakt:Evaluation of the low-carbon evolution of China's power system based on the theory of social technical system is helpful for the dynamic analysis of the development law of China's power system, revealing its evolution mechanism, and providing a theoretical basis for the decision makers to make power development strategies. From the perspective of landscape level, regime level and niche level, this paper constructs a set of comprehensive evaluation indexes by integrating the evolutionary entropy weight method and the policy variable weight function. We evaluate the evolution path of power system in combination with the power policy in different development stages, revealing the effect of internal vitality system, external factors and their interaction on the development of the system. The results show that the external environment is slow and stable in the evolution process, but the external environment is less robust to the major events of the power system. The formation mechanism of power policy needs to be constructed urgently. The regime level has a path-locking effect; its development is relatively stable and sensitive to policy constraints, so we should pay attention to the game relationship between fossil energy and non-fossil energy, and strengthen the coordinated development of regional energy. The niche level is particularly active, and it occupies a number of important indicators and has a strong positive impact on system evolution. On the contrary, the two indicators of international influence and public participation in the external environment have inhibitory effects on system evolution. On the whole, the evaluation index framework can better reflect the evolution characteristics of the process of China's power system. Based on the above analysis results, this paper believes that in the process of low-carbon evolution of China's power system, when the innovative technology is mature, we should appropriately reduce government policy intervention and follow the market rules of the government-led country. In the future, we should speed up the construction of niche demonstration projects, accelerate the certification of innovative technology ad the supervision of niche projects. From the perspective of low-carbon development, we should reduce the international impact of the negative index to improve the low-carbon evolution rate of the system and promote the low-carbon evolution of the whole power system. It is hoped that the results of this paper can be used as a reference in theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:10022104
DOI:10.12062/cpre.20200321