The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infect...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Health affairs (Millwood, Va.) Vol. 39; no. 6; pp. 927 - 935C
Main Authors: Bartsch, Sarah M, Ferguson, Marie C, McKinnell, James A, O'Shea, Kelly J, Wedlock, Patrick T, Siegmund, Sheryl S, Lee, Bruce Y
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States The People to People Health Foundation, Inc., Project HOPE 01.06.2020
Subjects:
Age
Ambulatory care
Clinical outcomes
Computer simulation
Coronavirus Infections - economics
Coronaviruses
Costs
COVID-19
Delivery of Health Care - economics
Disease
Disease Outbreaks - economics
Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
Epidemics
Female
Health care
Health Care Costs - statistics & numerical data
Health care expenditures
Health care policy
Health Resources - economics
Health Resources - statistics & numerical data
Health services
Hospital Costs - statistics & numerical data
Hospitalization
Hospitals
Humans
Illnesses
Infections
Influenza
Intensive care
Intensive Care Units - economics
Intensive Care Units - statistics & numerical data
Length of Stay - economics
Male
Monte Carlo Method
Monte Carlo simulation
Nonprescription drugs
Pandemics
Pandemics - economics
Pandemics - statistics & numerical data
Patient admissions
Patients
Pneumonia
Pneumonia, Viral - economics
Population
Probability
Sepsis
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Simulation
Streptococcus infections
United States
Ventilators
Viral diseases
United States
United States > US
COVID-19
Intensive care units
Coronavirus
Costs and spending
Economic burden
Health policy
Hospital costs
cost
Cost reduction
Value
Prescription drug costs
Diseases
ISSN:0278-2715, 2694-233X, 1544-5208, 2694-233X
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.
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ISSN:0278-2715
2694-233X
1544-5208
2694-233X
DOI:10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426