The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infect...
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| Vydané v: | Health affairs (Millwood, Va.) Ročník 39; číslo 6; s. 927 - 935C |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
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United States
The People to People Health Foundation, Inc., Project HOPE
01.06.2020
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| ISSN: | 0278-2715, 2694-233X, 1544-5208, 2694-233X |
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| Abstract | With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. |
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| AbstractList | With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic.With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the Us population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various attack rates (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5 million hospital bed days, and $654.0 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20 percent of the US population were to get infected, there could be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 2.7 million ICU admissions, 1.6 million patients requiring a ventilator, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and $163.4 billion in direct medical costs over the course of the pandemic. |
| Author | Bartsch, Sarah M O'Shea, Kelly J Siegmund, Sheryl S Ferguson, Marie C Wedlock, Patrick T Lee, Bruce Y McKinnell, James A |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Sarah M surname: Bartsch fullname: Bartsch, Sarah M organization: Sarah M. Bartsch is a project director at Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR), Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York, in New York City – sequence: 2 givenname: Marie C surname: Ferguson fullname: Ferguson, Marie C organization: Marie C. Ferguson is a project director at PHICOR, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York – sequence: 3 givenname: James A surname: McKinnell fullname: McKinnell, James A organization: James A. McKinnell is an associate professor of medicine in the Infectious Disease Clinical Outcomes Research Unit, Lundquist Institute, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, in Los Angeles, California – sequence: 4 givenname: Kelly J surname: O'Shea fullname: O'Shea, Kelly J organization: Kelly J. O'Shea is a senior research analyst at PHICOR, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York – sequence: 5 givenname: Patrick T surname: Wedlock fullname: Wedlock, Patrick T organization: Patrick T. Wedlock is a senior research analyst at PHICOR, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York – sequence: 6 givenname: Sheryl S surname: Siegmund fullname: Siegmund, Sheryl S organization: Sheryl S. Siegmund is director of operations at PHICOR, Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, City University of New York – sequence: 7 givenname: Bruce Y surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Bruce Y email: bruceleemdmba@gmail.com organization: Bruce Y. Lee (bruceleemdmba@gmail.com) is a professor of health policy and management at the Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy and executive director of PHICOR, both at the City University of New York |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32324428$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Copyright | Copyright The People to People Health Foundation, Inc., Project HOPE Jun 2020 |
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| DOI | 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426 |
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| SubjectTerms | Age Ambulatory care Clinical outcomes Computer simulation Coronavirus Infections - economics Coronaviruses Costs COVID-19 Delivery of Health Care - economics Disease Disease Outbreaks - economics Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data Epidemics Female Health care Health Care Costs - statistics & numerical data Health care expenditures Health care policy Health Resources - economics Health Resources - statistics & numerical data Health services Hospital Costs - statistics & numerical data Hospitalization Hospitals Humans Illnesses Infections Influenza Intensive care Intensive Care Units - economics Intensive Care Units - statistics & numerical data Length of Stay - economics Male Monte Carlo Method Monte Carlo simulation Nonprescription drugs Pandemics Pandemics - economics Pandemics - statistics & numerical data Patient admissions Patients Pneumonia Pneumonia, Viral - economics Population Probability Sepsis Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Simulation Streptococcus infections United States Ventilators Viral diseases |
| Title | The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States |
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