DESAGREGACIÓN TEMPORAL DE LECTURAS ACUMULADAS DE CONSUMO DE AGUA POTABLE POR MEDIO DE MÉTODOS ESTOCÁSTICOS

El consumo doméstico de agua potable tiene carácter estocástico y puede ser representado como series de pulsos rectangulares de Poisson (PRP). Para generar las series de consumo se requieren parámetros tales como intensidad, duración y frecuencia de los pulsos, representados por su valor medio, vari...

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Published in:Interciencia Vol. 33; no. 10; pp. 725 - 732
Main Authors: Yamanaka, Víctor Hugo Alcocer, Tzatchkov, Velitchko, Ortíz, Víctor Bourguett
Format: Journal Article
Language:Spanish
Published: Caracas Interciencia 01.10.2008
Asociación Interciencia
ASOCIACIÓN INTERCIENCIA
Subjects:
ECOLOGY
Multidisciplinaria (Ciencias Naturales y Exactas)
Desagregación Temporal
Neyman-Scott
Agua Potable
Modelos Estocásticos
Consumo de Agua Potable
ISSN:0378-1844, 2244-7776
Online Access:Get full text
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Abstract El consumo doméstico de agua potable tiene carácter estocástico y puede ser representado como series de pulsos rectangulares de Poisson (PRP). Para generar las series de consumo se requieren parámetros tales como intensidad, duración y frecuencia de los pulsos, representados por su valor medio, varianza y distribución de probabilidad. La obtención de estos parámetros se basa en la medición directa de la demanda instantánea con intervalo de registro de 1s por varios días, lo que genera una enorme cantidad de datos a manejar y es impráctica al requerir de equipos especiales. Aquí se presenta un método para estimar los parámetros necesarios para generar las series de consumo instantáneo, con base en mediciones con intervalos >1s (p.e. 1min). El método considera principios del proceso de Neyman-Scott (N-S) en la desagregación temporal del volumen acumulado. La estimación de los parámetros se fundamenta en la comparación de los momentos observados producto de las mediciones en campo, con los momentos teóricos obtenidos del proceso estocástico. Se plantea una función objetivo que expresa la relación entre ambos momentos, la cual se minimiza obteniéndose los parámetros que caracterizan estadísticamente al consumo instantáneo. Una vez estimados tales parámetros, el modelo estocástico permite abordar el problema de la generación de series sintéticas de consumo, empleando cualquier intervalo de agregación temporal. El método fue validado por medio de una comparación entre series generadas con los parámetros resultantes del método propuesto y series medidas en campo.
AbstractList El consumo doméstico de agua potable tiene carácter estocástico y puede ser representado como series de pulsos rectangulares de Poisson (PRP). Para generar las series de consumo se requieren parámetros tales como intensidad, duración y frecuencia de los pulsos, representados por su valor medio, varianza y distribución de probabilidad. La obtención de estos parámetros se basa en la medición directa de la demanda instantánea con intervalo de registro de 1s por varios días, lo que genera una enorme cantidad de datos a manejar y es impráctica al requerir de equipos especiales. Aquí se presenta un método para estimar los parámetros necesarios para generar las series de consumo instantáneo, con base en mediciones con intervalos >1s (p.e. 1min). El método considera principios del proceso de Neyman-Scott (N-S) en la desagregación temporal del volumen acumulado. La estimación de los parámetros se fundamenta en la comparación de los momentos observados producto de las mediciones en campo, con los momentos teóricos obtenidos del proceso estocástico. Se plantea una función objetivo que expresa la relación entre ambos momentos, la cual se minimiza obteniéndose los parámetros que caracterizan estadísticamente al consumo instantáneo. Una vez estimados tales parámetros, el modelo estocástico permite abordar el problema de la generación de series sintéticas de consumo, empleando cualquier intervalo de agregación temporal. El método fue validado por medio de una comparación entre series generadas con los parámetros resultantes del método propuesto y series medidas en campo.
Author Tzatchkov, Velitchko
Ortíz, Víctor Bourguett
Yamanaka, Víctor Hugo Alcocer
AuthorAffiliation Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México UNAM
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Keywords Desagregación Temporal
Neyman-Scott
Agua Potable
Modelos Estocásticos
Consumo de Agua Potable
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