The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century

Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (b...

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Vydané v:	Global change biology Ročník 19; číslo 1; s. 241 - 251
Hlavní autori:	Dobrowski, Solomon Z., Abatzoglou, John, Swanson, Alan K., Greenberg, Jonathan A., Mynsberge, Alison R., Holden, Zachary A., Schwartz, Michael K.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.01.2013 Wiley-Blackwell
Predmet:	Animal and plant ecology Animal, plant and microbial ecology Biological and medical sciences Climate Change climate change impacts climate change velocity climate velocity vectors Climatic data climatic factors climatic water balance Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Conservation biology Earth, ocean, space economics Evapotranspiration Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects Global warming History, 20th Century Meteorology temperature United States Water balance Water deficit United States North America America United States > US USA Dynamical climatology Climatic condition Climate change Climate climate change velocity climatic water balance climate change impacts Environmental factor Water balance Vector climate velocity vectors
ISSN:	1354-1013, 1365-2486
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Popis
Shrnutí:	Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on‐going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable environments. Here we assess the climate velocity (both climate displacement rate and direction) for minimum temperature, actual evapotranspiration, and climatic water deficit (deficit) over the contiguous US during the 20th century (1916–2005). Vectors for these variables demonstrate a complex mosaic of patterns that vary spatially and temporally and are dependent on the spatial resolution of input climate data. Velocities for variables that characterize the climatic water balance were similar in magnitude to that derived from temperature, but frequently differed in direction resulting in the divergence of climate vectors through time. Our results strain expectations of poleward and upslope migration over the past century due to warming. Instead, they suggest that a more full understanding of changes in multiple climatic factors, in addition to temperature, may help explain unexpected or conflicting observational evidence of climate‐driven species range shifts during the 20th century.
Bibliografia:	National Science Foundation - No. 0814387; No. 0819430 USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station - No. JV11221635-201 ArticleID:GCB12026 USDA CSREES - No. 2008-38420-19524 ark:/67375/WNG-5XWX4TQL-G Appendix A. Detailed methods for water balance model.Appendix B. Code for replicating water balance calculations in R.Appendix C. Validation of climate gradients used in water balance model. istex:D4631C78860BF0246732A1F09F389E2509AEBABB SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	1354-1013 1365-2486
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.12026