A Novel Fractional-order Discrete Grey Model with Initial Condition Optimization and Its Application

Estimating the optimal order of fractional accumulating operator and the optimal initial value are two inherent problems in studies of fractional grey models. To find the optimal order of fractional accumulating operator, numerical iteration algorithm is applied in this paper. It is used in applicat...

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Vydáno v:Chinese Control and Decision Conference s. 2007 - 2012
Hlavní autoři: Liu, Yitong, Pan, Feng, Xue, Dingyu, Nie, Jiwei
Médium: Konferenční příspěvek
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: IEEE 22.05.2021
Témata:
Computational modeling
energy consumption prediction
fractional-order grey model
grey predicting model
initial condition optimization
Mathematical models
numerical iterative algorithm
Numerical models
Power demand
Prediction algorithms
Predictive models
Technological innovation
ISSN:1948-9447
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Popis
Shrnutí:Estimating the optimal order of fractional accumulating operator and the optimal initial value are two inherent problems in studies of fractional grey models. To find the optimal order of fractional accumulating operator, numerical iteration algorithm is applied in this paper. It is used in applications compared with the other two existing optimization algorithm (genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm), which proves that the numerical iteration algorithm is simpler than the other two algorithms and has the same accuracy. At the same time, this paper proposes a numerical method to find the optimal initial condition and gives a proof. And based on methods mentioned previously, a novel fractional-order grey discrete model with initial value optimization is proposed. In order to test the new model, per capita power consumption in southern Jiangsu province is employed. Results show that the new fractional-order discrete grey model proposed in this paper is better than the competitive grey model in predicting and fitting periods.
ISSN:1948-9447
DOI:10.1109/CCDC52312.2021.9602788