Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Pa...

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Vydané v:Energy policy Ročník 68; s. 146 - 157
Hlavní autori: MCPHERSON, Madeleine, KARNEY, Bryan
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Kidlington Elsevier 01.05.2014
Elsevier Science Ltd
Predmet:
Alternative energy sources
Alternative planning
Alternatives
Applied sciences
Business
Climate
Climate change
Climate change mitigation
Cost
Economic data
Economic development
Economic models
Electric energy
Electric power
Electric utilities
Electricity
Electricity generation
Energy
Energy costs
Energy development
Energy economics
Energy policy
Energy resources
Environmental policy
Exact sciences and technology
General, economic and professional studies
Global warming
Indexes
Latin America
Law
Long term
Long-term analysis
Methodology. Modelling
Mitigation
Natural energy
Power
Power generation
Studies
Technology
Uncertainty
Wind power
Panama
Energy scenarios
Renewable energy
Energy policy
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
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Shrnutí:Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning' (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.028