Estimation of Newborn Risk for Child or Adolescent Obesity: Lessons from Longitudinal Birth Cohorts

Prevention of obesity should start as early as possible after birth. We aimed to build clinically useful equations estimating the risk of later obesity in newborns, as a first step towards focused early prevention against the global obesity epidemic. We analyzed the lifetime Northern Finland Birth C...

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Vydáno v:	PloS one Ročník 7; číslo 11; s. e49919
Hlavní autoři:	Morandi, Anita, Meyre, David, Lobbens, Stéphane, Kleinman, Ken, Kaakinen, Marika, Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L., Vatin, Vincent, Gaget, Stefan, Pouta, Anneli, Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa, Laitinen, Jaana, Ruokonen, Aimo, Das, Shikta, Khan, Anokhi Ali, Elliott, Paul, Maffeis, Claudio, Gillman, Matthew W., Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta, Froguel, Philippe
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	United States Public Library of Science 28.11.2012 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Témata:	Adolescent Adolescent obesity Adolescents Adult Age Birth Weight Body mass Body Mass Index Calculators Cardiovascular disease Child Child development Child health Childbirth & labor Childhood obesity Children Clinical medicine Cohort Studies Colorectal cancer Diabetes Disease prevention Epidemics Epidemiology Female Finland - epidemiology Genetic aspects Genetic counseling Genetic diversity Genetic polymorphisms Genetic variance Gynecology Health sciences Humans Logistic Models Male Maternal behavior Mathematical analysis Mathematical models Medicine Middle Aged Neonates Newborn infants Nutrition Obesity Obesity - epidemiology Obesity - prevention & control Obstetrics Pediatrics Predictions Prevention Public health Risk Risk analysis Risk factors Social behavior Sociodemographics Teenagers Type 2 diabetes White People Young Adult Finland United Kingdom > UK France United States > US Massachusetts
ISSN:	1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Shrnutí:	Prevention of obesity should start as early as possible after birth. We aimed to build clinically useful equations estimating the risk of later obesity in newborns, as a first step towards focused early prevention against the global obesity epidemic. We analyzed the lifetime Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1986 (NFBC1986) (N = 4,032) to draw predictive equations for childhood and adolescent obesity from traditional risk factors (parental BMI, birth weight, maternal gestational weight gain, behaviour and social indicators), and a genetic score built from 39 BMI/obesity-associated polymorphisms. We performed validation analyses in a retrospective cohort of 1,503 Italian children and in a prospective cohort of 1,032 U.S. children. In the NFBC1986, the cumulative accuracy of traditional risk factors predicting childhood obesity, adolescent obesity, and childhood obesity persistent into adolescence was good: AUROC = 0·78[0·74-0.82], 0·75[0·71-0·79] and 0·85[0·80-0·90] respectively (all p<0·001). Adding the genetic score produced discrimination improvements ≤1%. The NFBC1986 equation for childhood obesity remained acceptably accurate when applied to the Italian and the U.S. cohort (AUROC = 0·70[0·63-0·77] and 0·73[0·67-0·80] respectively) and the two additional equations for childhood obesity newly drawn from the Italian and the U.S. datasets showed good accuracy in respective cohorts (AUROC = 0·74[0·69-0·79] and 0·79[0·73-0·84]) (all p<0·001). The three equations for childhood obesity were converted into simple Excel risk calculators for potential clinical use. This study provides the first example of handy tools for predicting childhood obesity in newborns by means of easily recorded information, while it shows that currently known genetic variants have very little usefulness for such prediction.
Bibliografie:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Conceived and designed the experiments: AM DM PF. Performed the experiments: SL SG VV. Analyzed the data: AM KK SLR-S. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: SL MK SG VV. Wrote the paper: AM. Cohort investigators: M-RJ CM MG KK SLR-S MK AP A-LH JL AR SD AAK. Supervised the study: PE M-RJ PF. Equally contributed as last authors: M-RJ PF. Equal corresponding authors: AM PF.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0049919