Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point

Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degrad...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences Vol. 363; no. 1498; p. 1737
Main Authors: Nepstad, Daniel C, Stickler, Claudia M, Filho, Britaldo Soares, Merry, Frank
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: England 27.05.2008
Subjects:
Conservation of Natural Resources - trends
Ecosystem
Greenhouse Effect
Time Factors
Trees
Tropical Climate
ISSN:0962-8436
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:Some model experiments predict a large-scale substitution of Amazon forest by savannah-like vegetation by the end of the twenty-first century. Expanding global demands for biofuels and grains, positive feedbacks in the Amazon forest fire regime and drought may drive a faster process of forest degradation that could lead to a near-term forest dieback. Rising worldwide demands for biofuel and meat are creating powerful new incentives for agro-industrial expansion into Amazon forest regions. Forest fires, drought and logging increase susceptibility to further burning while deforestation and smoke can inhibit rainfall, exacerbating fire risk. If sea surface temperature anomalies (such as El Niño episodes) and associated Amazon droughts of the last decade continue into the future, approximately 55% of the forests of the Amazon will be cleared, logged, damaged by drought or burned over the next 20 years, emitting 15-26Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. Several important trends could prevent a near-term dieback. As fire-sensitive investments accumulate in the landscape, property holders use less fire and invest more in fire control. Commodity markets are demanding higher environmental performance from farmers and cattle ranchers. Protected areas have been established in the pathway of expanding agricultural frontiers. Finally, emerging carbon market incentives for reductions in deforestation could support these trends.
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ISSN:0962-8436
DOI:10.1098/rstb.2007.0036