Half of Atlantic reef-building corals at elevated risk of extinction due to climate change and other threats

Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow wat...

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Vydané v:	PloS one Ročník 19; číslo 11; s. e0309354
Hlavní autori:	Gutierrez, Luis, Polidoro, Beth, Obura, David, Cabada-Blanco, Francoise, Linardich, Christi, Pettersson, Emma, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Kemppinen, Krista, Alvarado, Juan Jose, Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo, Banaszak, Anastazia, Casado de Amezua, Pilar, Crabbe, James, Croquer, Aldo, Feingold, Joshua, Goergen, Elizabeth, Goffredo, Stefano, Hoeksema, Bert, Huang, Danwei, Kennedy, Emma, Kersting, Diego, Kitahara, Marcelo, Kružić, Petar, Miller, Margaret, Nunes, Flavia, Quimbayo, Juan Pablo, Rivera-Sosa, Andrea, Rodríguez-Martínez, Rosa, Santodomingo, Nadia, Sweet, Michael, Vermeij, Mark, Villamizar, Estrella, Aeby, Greta, Alliji, Khatija, Bayley, Daniel, Couce, Elena, Cowburn, Benjamin, Nuñez Lendo, C. Isabel, Porter, Sean, Samimi-Namin, Kaveh, Shlesinger, Tom, Wilson, Bryan
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	United States Public Library of Science 15.11.2024 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Predmet:	Animals Anthozoa - physiology Anthropogenic factors Assessments Atlantic Ocean Biodiversity Bleaching Climate Change Climatic changes Conservation of Natural Resources Coral Reefs Coral reefs and islands Corals Endangered & extinct species Endangered Species Environmental aspects Extinction Extinction (Biology) Extinction, Biological Forecasts and trends Human influences Influence Life Sciences Mortality Ocean temperature Ocean warming Population decline Protection and preservation Sea surface temperature Shallow water Species extinction Surface temperature Threatened species Varieties Wildlife conservation Atlantic Ocean Brazil United States > US Mediterranean Sea
ISSN:	1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Abstract	Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989–2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020–2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species’ relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%–54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%–40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.
AbstractList	Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989–2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020–2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species’ relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%–54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%–40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support. Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989-2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020-2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species' relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%-54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%-40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.Atlantic reef-building corals and coral reefs continue to experience extensive decline due to increased stressors related to climate change, disease, pollution, and numerous anthropogenic threats. To understand the impact of ocean warming and reef loss on the estimated extinction risk of shallow water Atlantic reef-building scleractinians and milleporids, all 85 valid species were reassessed under the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, updating the previous Red List assessment of Atlantic corals published in 2008. For the present assessment, individual species declines were estimated based on the modeled coral cover loss (1989-2019) and projected onset of annual severe bleaching events (2020-2050) across the Atlantic. Species traits were used to scale species' relative vulnerability to the modeled cover declines and forecasted bleaching events. The updated assessments place 45.88%-54.12% of Atlantic shallow water corals at an elevated extinction risk compared to the previous assessments conducted in 2008 (15.19%-40.51%). However, coral cover loss estimates indicate an improvement in reef coverage compared to the historic time-series used for the 2008 assessments. Based on this, we infer that, although remaining dangerously high, the rate of Atlantic reef coral cover decline has surprisingly slowed in recent decades. However, based on modeled projections of sea-surface temperature that predict the onset of annual severe bleaching events within the next 30 years, we listed 26 (out of 85) species as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Each of these species had previously been listed under a lower threatened category and this result alone highlights the severe threat future bleaching events pose to coral survival and the reef ecosystems they support.
Audience	Academic
Author	Alvarado, Juan Jose Samimi-Namin, Kaveh Goffredo, Stefano Shlesinger, Tom Kersting, Diego Alliji, Khatija Kružić, Petar Casado de Amezua, Pilar Croquer, Aldo Aeby, Greta Miller, Margaret Linardich, Christi Huang, Danwei Villamizar, Estrella Rivera-Sosa, Andrea Pearce-Kelly, Paul Gutierrez, Luis Kemppinen, Krista Kitahara, Marcelo Nunes, Flavia Kennedy, Emma Goergen, Elizabeth Couce, Elena Santodomingo, Nadia Porter, Sean Cabada-Blanco, Francoise Sweet, Michael Hoeksema, Bert Polidoro, Beth Wilson, Bryan Pettersson, Emma Nuñez Lendo, C. Isabel Banaszak, Anastazia Quimbayo, Juan Pablo Feingold, Joshua Cowburn, Benjamin Obura, David Rodríguez-Martínez, Rosa Vermeij, Mark Bayley, Daniel Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo Crabbe, James
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Copyright	Copyright: © 2024 Gutierrez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. COPYRIGHT 2024 Public Library of Science 2024 Gutierrez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License 2024 Gutierrez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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SubjectTerms	Animals Anthozoa - physiology Anthropogenic factors Assessments Atlantic Ocean Biodiversity Bleaching Climate Change Climatic changes Conservation of Natural Resources Coral Reefs Coral reefs and islands Corals Endangered & extinct species Endangered Species Environmental aspects Extinction Extinction (Biology) Extinction, Biological Forecasts and trends Human influences Influence Life Sciences Mortality Ocean temperature Ocean warming Population decline Protection and preservation Sea surface temperature Shallow water Species extinction Surface temperature Threatened species Varieties Wildlife conservation
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Title	Half of Atlantic reef-building corals at elevated risk of extinction due to climate change and other threats
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