Trends in lifetime risk and years of potential life lost from diabetes in the United States, 1997–2018

Both incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden-lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes-is unknown. We used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one Jg. 17; H. 5; S. e0268805
Hauptverfasser: Koyama, Alain K., Cheng, Yiling J., Brinks, Ralph, Xie, Hui, Gregg, Edward W., Hoyer, Annika, Pavkov, Meda E., Imperatore, Giuseppina
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: United States Public Library of Science 24.05.2022
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Schlagworte:
Adult
Adults
Age
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Biology and Life Sciences
Black or African American
Black People
Cross-Sectional Studies
Demographics
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology
Diabetes Mellitus - ethnology
Diabetes Mellitus - mortality
Difference equations
Distribution
Estimates
Ethnicity
Evaluation
Gestational diabetes
Health risks
Hispanic or Latino
Hispanic people
Humans
Incidence
Interviews
Life Expectancy
Medical diagnosis
Medicine and Health Sciences
Middle Aged
Minority & ethnic groups
Monte Carlo simulation
Mortality
People and places
Poisson Distribution
Population
Risk Factors
Secondary schools
Surveys
Trends
United States - epidemiology
Young Adult
United States
United States > US
ISSN:1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Zusammenfassung:Both incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden-lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes-is unknown. We used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18 years from the National Health Interview Survey, a cross-sectional sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. LR, YPLL, and years spent with diabetes were estimated from age 18 to 84 by survey period (1997-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2018). The age-specific incidence of diagnosed diabetes and mortality were estimated using Poisson regression. A multistate difference equation accounting for competing risks was used to model each metric. LR and years spent with diabetes initially increased then decreased over the most recent time periods. LR for adults at age 20 increased from 31.7% (95% CI: 31.2-32.1%) in 1997-1999 to 40.7% (40.2-41.1%) in 2005-2009, then decreased to 32.8% (32.4-33.2%) in 2015-2018. Both LR and years spent with diabetes were markedly higher among adults of non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other races compared to non-Hispanic Whites. YPLL significantly decreased over the study period, with the estimated YPLL due to diabetes for an adult aged 20 decreasing from 8.9 (8.7-9.1) in 1997-1999 to 6.2 (6.1-6.4) in 2015-2018 (p = 0.02). In the United States, diabetes burden is declining, but disparities by race/ethnicity remain. LR remains high with approximately one-third of adults estimated to develop diabetes during their lifetime.
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Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0268805