The effects of China's universal two-child policy

In October, 2015, China's one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Lancet (British edition) Vol. 388; no. 10054; pp. 1930 - 1938
Main Authors: Zeng, Yi, Hesketh, Therese
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: England Elsevier Ltd 15.10.2016
Elsevier Limited
Subjects:
Abortion, Induced
Aging
Birth Rate
Births
Caregivers
Children & youth
China - epidemiology
Coercion
Confucianism
Contraception - methods
Disabled Persons - statistics & numerical data
Educational Status
Employment
Ethnic Groups - legislation & jurisprudence
Families & family life
Family planning
Female
Gender equity
Health Services - trends
Health Services Needs and Demand - trends
Health Status
History, 20th Century
History, 21st Century
Humans
Income
Internal Medicine
Intrauterine Devices - utilization
Male
Only Child
Parents
Population Control - history
Population Control - legislation & jurisprudence
Population Control - trends
Population decline
Population Growth
Public Policy - history
Public Policy - legislation & jurisprudence
Public Policy - trends
Punishment
Rural Population - statistics & numerical data
Sex Ratio
Social policy
Urban Population - statistics & numerical data
Women
Women's Health
China
ISSN:0140-6736, 1474-547X
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In October, 2015, China's one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with a peak of 1·4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy continued). The new policy will allow almost all Chinese people to have their preferred number of children. The benefits of the new policy include: a large reduction in abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio. All of these effects should improve health outcomes. Effects of the new policy on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing will not be evident for two decades. In the meantime, more sound policy actions are needed to meet the social, health, and care needs of the elderly population.
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ISSN:0140-6736
1474-547X
DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31405-2