National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis

Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and...

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Vydané v:The Lancet global health Ročník 4; číslo 2; s. e98 - e108
Hlavní autori: Blencowe, Hannah, Cousens, Simon, Jassir, Fiorella Bianchi, Say, Lale, Chou, Doris, Mathers, Colin, Hogan, Dan, Shiekh, Suhail, Qureshi, Zeshan U, You, Danzhen, Lawn, Joy E, Zhu, Jun, Liang, Juan, Mu, Yi, Li, Xiaohong, Costello, Anthony, Colbourn, Tim, Fottrell, Edward, Prost, Audrey, Osrin, David, King, Carina, Neuman, Melissa, More, Neena Shah, Azad, Kishwar, Manandhar, Dharma, Nair, Nirmala, Tripathy, Prasanta, Kumar, Rajesh, Newtonraj, Ariarathinam, Kaur, Manmeet, Gupta, Madhu, Dhaliwal, LK, Aggarwal, Neelam, Venkateshashan, Chawla, Deepak, Hurja, Anju, Shivkumar, Poonam, Jain, Manish, Gathwala, Geeta, Nanda, Smiti, Gupta, Shashi, Singal, Sangeeta, Kumar, Raj, Sharma, Sujata, Mohi, Manjit, Minhas, Santish, Prasad, Rajendra, Verma, Suresh, Raina, Neena, Li, Aimable Musafi, Varghese, Beena, Pattison, Robert, Hirst, Jane, Waiswa, Peter, Kadobera, Daniel, Kujala, Sanni, Bergstrom, Anna, Phiri, Tambosi, Hall, Jennifer A, Day, Louise T, Saha, Stacy L, Alam, Shafi Ul, Rahman, Anisur, El-Arifeen, Shams, Rubayet, Sayed, Hassan, Ahmed Ali, Smith, Lucy, Manktelow, Bradley N, Draper, Elizabeth S, Zhong, Nanbert, Langhoff-Roos, Jans, Flenady, Vicki, Allvee, Kärt, Gissler, Mika, Lack, Nicholas, Wangdi, Sonam, Cap, Jan, Podmanicka, Zuzana, Szamotulska, Katarzyna, Hukkelhoven, Chantal, Dijs-Elsinga, Joyce, Kyprianou, Theopisti, Klungsøyr, Kari, Herandez, Flor de Maria, Curteanu, Ala, Barros, Henrique, Correia, Sofia, Tsiklauri, Shorena, Lundqvist, Ellen, Fulbert Ilboudo, Tinga, Bah, Abdouli, Jawara, Lamin, Zeitlin, Jennifer, Isakova, Jelena, Poppe, Olav
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: England Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2016
Elsevier
Predmet:
Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology
Asia - epidemiology
Female
Fetal Mortality - trends
Gestational Age
Global Health
Humans
Internal Medicine
Likelihood Functions
Perinatal Mortality - trends
Pregnancy
Stillbirth - epidemiology
Uncertainty
ISSN:2214-109X, 2214-109X
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Abstract Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach. Data from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4–3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Progress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals. Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
AbstractList Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach. Data from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Progress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals. Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015.BACKGROUNDPrevious estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015.We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach.METHODSWe collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach.Data from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.FINDINGSData from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4-3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.Progress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals.INTERPRETATIONProgress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals.Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.FUNDINGSave the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Background: Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. Methods: We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach. Findings: Data from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4–3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Progress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals. Funding: Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Summary Background Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015. Methods We collated SBR data meeting prespecified inclusion criteria from national routine or registration systems, nationally representative surveys, and other data sources identified through a systematic review, web-based searches, and consultation with stillbirth experts. We modelled SBR (≥28 weeks' gestation) for 195 countries with restricted maximum likelihood estimation with country-level random effects. Uncertainty ranges were obtained through a bootstrap approach. Findings Data from 157 countries (2207 datapoints) met the inclusion criteria, a 90% increase from 2009 estimates. The estimated average global SBR in 2015 was 18·4 per 1000 births, down from 24·7 in 2000 (25·5% reduction). In 2015, an estimated 2·6 million (uncertainty range 2·4–3·0 million) babies were stillborn, giving a 19% decline in numbers since 2000 with the slowest progress in sub-Saharan Africa. 98% of all stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries; 77% in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Progress in reducing the large worldwide stillbirth burden remains slow and insufficient to meet national targets such as for ENAP. Stillbirths are increasingly being counted at a local level, but countries and the global community must further improve the quality and comparability of data, and ensure that this is more clearly linked to accountability processes including the Sustainable Development Goals. Funding Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme to The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Author Gupta, Madhu
Prost, Audrey
Mu, Yi
Kaur, Manmeet
Manktelow, Bradley N
Lawn, Joy E
Hogan, Dan
Aggarwal, Neelam
Langhoff-Roos, Jans
Zeitlin, Jennifer
Costello, Anthony
Shivkumar, Poonam
Szamotulska, Katarzyna
Hall, Jennifer A
Gathwala, Geeta
Kumar, Rajesh
El-Arifeen, Shams
Kumar, Raj
Blencowe, Hannah
Gissler, Mika
Lack, Nicholas
Say, Lale
King, Carina
Neuman, Melissa
Klungsøyr, Kari
Nair, Nirmala
Phiri, Tambosi
Cousens, Simon
Dhaliwal, LK
Fulbert Ilboudo, Tinga
Hassan, Ahmed Ali
Saha, Stacy L
Isakova, Jelena
Li, Xiaohong
Tripathy, Prasanta
Barros, Henrique
Hirst, Jane
Shiekh, Suhail
Manandhar, Dharma
Mohi, Manjit
Zhu, Jun
Minhas, Santish
Alam, Shafi Ul
Lundqvist, Ellen
Osrin, David
Kyprianou, Theopisti
Jain, Manish
Jassir, Fiorella Bianchi
Chawla, Deepak
Fottrell, Edward
Podmanicka, Zuzana
Hukkelhoven, Chantal
More, Neena Shah
Curteanu, Ala
Li, Aimable Musafi
Pattison, Robert
Cap, Jan
Venkateshashan
Rahman, Anisur
Azad, Kishwar
Singal, Sangeeta
Qureshi, Zeshan U
Colbourn, Tim
Kadobera, Daniel
Day, Louise T
Poppe, Olav
Waiswa, Peter
Prasad, Rajendra
Allvee
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  fullname: Poppe, Olav
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Prost, Audrey
Mu, Yi
Kaur, Manmeet
Dhaliwal, L K
Manktelow, Bradley N
Aggarwal, Neelam
Zeitlin, Jennifer
Costello, Anthony
Shivkumar, Poonam
Szamotulska, Katarzyna
Hall, Jennifer A
Gathwala, Geeta
Kumar, Rajesh
El-Arifeen, Shams
Kumar, Raj
Gissler, Mika
Lack, Nicholas
Ilboudo, Tinga Fulbert
King, Carina
Neuman, Melissa
Klungsøyr, Kari
Nair, Nirmala
Phiri, Tambosi
Alam, Shafi ul
Hassan, Ahmed Ali
Saha, Stacy L
Isakova, Jelena
Li, Xiaohong
Tripathy, Prasanta
Barros, Henrique
Hirst, Jane
a Correia, Sofi
Musafi li, Aimable
Manandhar, Dharma
Mohi, Manjit
Zhu, Jun
Minhas, Santish
Lundqvist, Ellen
Osrin, David
Kyprianou, Theopisti
Jain, Manish
de Maria Herandez, Flor
Chawla, Deepak
Fottrell, Edward
Langhoff -Roos, Jans
Podmanicka, Zuzana
Hukkelhoven, Chantal
Curteanu, Ala
Pattison, Robert
Shah More, Neena
Cap, Jan
Venkateshashan
Rahman, Anisur
Azad, Kishwar
Singal, Sangeeta
Colbourn, Tim
Kadobera, Daniel
Day, Louise T
Poppe, Olav
Waiswa, Peter
Prasad, Rajendra
Allvee, Kärt
Hurja, Anju
Gupta, Shashi
Draper, Elizabeth S
Kujala, Sanni
Sharma, Sujat
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Copyright 2016 Blencowe et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND
Blencowe et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND
Copyright © 2016 Blencowe et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Copyright_xml – notice: 2016 Blencowe et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND
– notice: Blencowe et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND
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Snippet Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every...
Summary Background Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most...
Background: Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths...
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SubjectTerms Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology
Asia - epidemiology
Female
Fetal Mortality - trends
Gestational Age
Global Health
Humans
Internal Medicine
Likelihood Functions
Perinatal Mortality - trends
Pregnancy
Stillbirth - epidemiology
Uncertainty
Title National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis
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