Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by project...

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Vydané v:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 111; číslo 9; s. 3245
Hlavní autori:	Schewe, Jacob, Heinke, Jens, Gerten, Dieter, Haddeland, Ingjerd, Arnell, Nigel W, Clark, Douglas B, Dankers, Rutger, Eisner, Stephanie, Fekete, Balázs M, Colón-González, Felipe J, Gosling, Simon N, Kim, Hyungjun, Liu, Xingcai, Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Portmann, Felix T, Satoh, Yusuke, Stacke, Tobias, Tang, Qiuhong, Wada, Yoshihide, Wisser, Dominik, Albrecht, Torsten, Frieler, Katja, Piontek, Franziska, Warszawski, Lila, Kabat, Pavel
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	United States 04.03.2014
Predmet:	Climate Change Droughts - statistics & numerical data Forecasting Models, Theoretical Population Growth Temperature Water Supply - statistics & numerical data climate impacts Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project hydrological modeling
ISSN:	1091-6490, 1091-6490
On-line prístup:	Zistit podrobnosti o prístupe
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Abstract	Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
AbstractList	Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
Author	Frieler, Katja Haddeland, Ingjerd Liu, Xingcai Portmann, Felix T Gerten, Dieter Gosling, Simon N Stacke, Tobias Schewe, Jacob Heinke, Jens Clark, Douglas B Dankers, Rutger Satoh, Yusuke Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik Eisner, Stephanie Warszawski, Lila Arnell, Nigel W Piontek, Franziska Fekete, Balázs M Masaki, Yoshimitsu Tang, Qiuhong Kim, Hyungjun Kabat, Pavel Albrecht, Torsten Colón-González, Felipe J
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Jacob surname: Schewe fullname: Schewe, Jacob organization: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Jens surname: Heinke fullname: Heinke, Jens – sequence: 3 givenname: Dieter surname: Gerten fullname: Gerten, Dieter – sequence: 4 givenname: Ingjerd surname: Haddeland fullname: Haddeland, Ingjerd – sequence: 5 givenname: Nigel W surname: Arnell fullname: Arnell, Nigel W – sequence: 6 givenname: Douglas B surname: Clark fullname: Clark, Douglas B – sequence: 7 givenname: Rutger surname: Dankers fullname: Dankers, Rutger – sequence: 8 givenname: Stephanie surname: Eisner fullname: Eisner, Stephanie – sequence: 9 givenname: Balázs M surname: Fekete fullname: Fekete, Balázs M – sequence: 10 givenname: Felipe J surname: Colón-González fullname: Colón-González, Felipe J – sequence: 11 givenname: Simon N surname: Gosling fullname: Gosling, Simon N – sequence: 12 givenname: Hyungjun surname: Kim fullname: Kim, Hyungjun – sequence: 13 givenname: Xingcai surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Xingcai – sequence: 14 givenname: Yoshimitsu surname: Masaki fullname: Masaki, Yoshimitsu – sequence: 15 givenname: Felix T surname: Portmann fullname: Portmann, Felix T – sequence: 16 givenname: Yusuke surname: Satoh fullname: Satoh, Yusuke – sequence: 17 givenname: Tobias surname: Stacke fullname: Stacke, Tobias – sequence: 18 givenname: Qiuhong surname: Tang fullname: Tang, Qiuhong – sequence: 19 givenname: Yoshihide surname: Wada fullname: Wada, Yoshihide – sequence: 20 givenname: Dominik surname: Wisser fullname: Wisser, Dominik – sequence: 21 givenname: Torsten surname: Albrecht fullname: Albrecht, Torsten – sequence: 22 givenname: Katja surname: Frieler fullname: Frieler, Katja – sequence: 23 givenname: Franziska surname: Piontek fullname: Piontek, Franziska – sequence: 24 givenname: Lila surname: Warszawski fullname: Warszawski, Lila – sequence: 25 givenname: Pavel surname: Kabat fullname: Kabat, Pavel
BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24344289$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet	Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as...
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SubjectTerms	Climate Change Droughts - statistics & numerical data Forecasting Models, Theoretical Population Growth Temperature Water Supply - statistics & numerical data
Title	Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
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