Rapid mortality surveillance using a national population register to monitor excess deaths during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in South Africa

This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-...

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Vydané v:Genus Ročník 77; číslo 1; s. 19 - 17
Hlavní autori: Dorrington, Rob E., Moultrie, Tom A., Laubscher, Ria, Groenewald, Pam J., Bradshaw, Debbie
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Cham Springer International Publishing 03.09.2021
Springer Nature B.V
SpringerOpen
Predmet:
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Death & dying
Deaths
Demography
Excess deaths
Humanities
Law
Mobility
Original
Original Article
Pandemics
Population Economics
Population Perspectives on Civil Registration and Vital Statistics
Population register
Rapid mortality surveillance
Registration
Severe acute respiratory syndrome
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social Sciences
South Africa
Statistics for Social Sciences
Surveillance
COVID-19
Rapid mortality surveillance
South Africa
Population register
Excess deaths
ISSN:2035-5556, 0016-6987, 2035-5556
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Popis
Shrnutí:This paper describes how an up-to-date national population register recording deaths by age and sex, whether deaths were due to natural or unnatural causes, and the offices at which the deaths were recorded can be used to monitor excess death during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, both nationally, and sub-nationally, in a country with a vital registration system that is neither up to date nor complete. Apart from suggesting an approach for estimating completeness of reporting at a sub-national level, the application produces estimates of the number of deaths in excess of those expected in the absence of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that are highly correlated with the confirmed number of COVID-19 deaths over time, but at a level 2.5 to 3 times higher than the official numbers of COVID-19 deaths. Apportioning the observed excess deaths more precisely to COVID, COVID-related and collateral deaths, and non-COVID deaths averted by interventions with reduced mobility and gatherings, etc., requires access to real-time cause-of-death information. It is suggested that the transition from ICD-10 to ICD-11 should be used as an opportunity to change from a paper-based system to electronic capture of the medical cause-of-death information.
Bibliografia:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:2035-5556
0016-6987
2035-5556
DOI:10.1186/s41118-021-00134-6