Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus s...

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Veröffentlicht in:PLoS computational biology Jg. 18; H. 8; S. e1009577
Hauptverfasser: Yin, Shenglai, Xu, Yanjie, Xu, Mingshuai, de Jong, Mart C. M., Huisman, Mees R. S., Contina, Andrea, Prins, Herbert H. T., Huang, Zheng Y. X., de Boer, Willem F.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: San Francisco Public Library of Science 18.08.2022
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Schlagworte:
Agent-based models
Aquatic birds
Avian flu
Avian influenza
Biology and Life Sciences
Bird migration
Computer and Information Sciences
Earth Sciences
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Epidemics
Habitat availability
Habitat loss
Habitats
Health aspects
Health risks
Infections
Influenza
Medicine and Health Sciences
Outbreaks
Pathogens
Physical Sciences
Physiological aspects
Research and Analysis Methods
Social Sciences
Viruses
Waterfowl
West Nile virus
China
Yangtze River
ISSN:1553-7358, 1553-734X, 1553-7358
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Zusammenfassung:Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of “migratory escape”, i.e., the migration allows the geese to “escape” from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.
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The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1553-7358
1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009577