On the Validity of the Regression Discontinuity Design for Estimating Electoral Effects: New Evidence from Over 40,000 Close Races

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections, pointing ou...

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Veröffentlicht in:American journal of political science Jg. 59; H. 1; S. 259 - 274
Hauptverfasser: Eggers, Andrew C., Fowler, Anthony, Hainmueller, Jens, Hall, Andrew B., Snyder Jr, James M.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.01.2015
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Schlagworte:
AJPS WORKSHOP
Best practice
Discontinuity
Effects
Election results
Elections
Electoral College
Electoral systems
Incumbency
Incumbents
Legislative Bodies
Legislatures
Local elections
Lower houses
Mayors
P values
Parliamentary elections
Parliaments
Political campaigns
Political candidates
Political parties
Political representation
Political succession
Presidential elections
Race
Time Periods
U.S.A
United States of America
Voting
ISSN:0092-5853, 1540-5907
Online-Zugang:Volltext
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Zusammenfassung:The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a valuable tool for identifying electoral effects, but this design is only effective when relevant actors do not have precise control over election results. Several recent papers contend that such precise control is possible in large elections, pointing out that the incumbent party is more likely to win very close elections in the United States House of Representatives in recent periods. In this article, we examine whether similar patterns occur in other electoral settings, including the U.S. House in other time periods, statewide, state legislative, and mayoral races in the U.S. and national or local elections in nine other countries. No other case exhibits this pattern. We also cast doubt on suggested explanations for incumbent success in close House races. We conclude that the assumptions behind the RD design are likely to be met in a wide variety of electoral settings and offer a set of best practices for RD researchers going forward.
Bibliographie:ark:/67375/WNG-MWSHG34J-1
istex:9B8B5188767AE769B94B3B4C73DBAD8846541C7F
ArticleID:AJPS12127
For generously providing data, the authors thank Alberto Abadie, Melissa Dell, Fernando Ferreira, Alexander Fouirnaies, Ronny Freier, Danny Hidalgo, Yusaku Horiuchi, and Carl Klarner. For helpful comments, we thank Devin Caughey, Justin Grimmer, Gary King, and Jas Sekhon. We especially thank Olle Folke for his collaboration on earlier drafts of this article as well as his enthusiastic support throughout the project. The data used in this study can be downloaded for replication from the AJPS Data Archive on Dataverse
http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/ajps
.
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ISSN:0092-5853
1540-5907
DOI:10.1111/ajps.12127