Stochastic Modeling of Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Europe under Demand Uncertainty

We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We use a stochastic mixed integer quadratic model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about future natural gas consumption in Europe on optima...

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Published in:	The Energy journal (Cambridge, Mass.) Vol. 37; no. 3_suppl; pp. 5 - 32
Main Authors:	Fodstad, Marte, Egging, Ruud, Midthun, Kjetil, Tomasgard, Asgeir
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Los Angeles, CA Energy Economics Education Foundation 01.12.2016 SAGE Publications International Association for Energy Economics Sage Publications Ltd. (UK)
Subjects:	Analysis Carbon sequestration Economic models Environmental aspects European Union Expected values Fuel consumption Gas pipelines Greenhouse gases Impact analysis Infrastructure Infrastructure (Economics) Investments Laws, regulations and rules Liquefied natural gas Mixed integer Natural gas Natural gas development Natural gas industry Natural gas pipelines Natural gas transmission Nuclear energy Pipeline transportation Pipelines Sensitivity analysis Stochastic models Storage Supply and demand Technology Transportation costs Uncertainty Europe Africa Infrastructure Mixed integer quadratic programming Stochastic modeling Natural gas
ISSN:	0195-6574, 1944-9089
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Abstract	We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We use a stochastic mixed integer quadratic model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about future natural gas consumption in Europe on optimal investments in pipelines. Our data is based on results from the PRIMES model of natural gas demand and technology scenarios discussed in Knopf et al. (2013). We present a comparison between the results from the stochastic model and the expected value model, as well as an analysis of the individual scenarios. We also performed sensitivity analyses on the probabilities of the future scenarios. Comparison of the results from the stochastic model to those of a deterministic expected value model reveals a negligible Value of the Stochastic Solution. We do, however, find structurally different infrastructure solutions in the stochastic and the deterministic models. Regarding infrastructure expansions, we find that 1) the largest pipeline investments will be towards Asia, 2) there is a trend towards a larger gas supply from Africa to Europe, and 3) within Europe, eastward connections will be strengthened. Our main finding using the stochastic approach is that there is limited option value in delaying investments in natural gas infrastructure, until more information is available regarding policy and technology in 2020, due to the low costs of overcapacity.
AbstractList	We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We use a stochastic mixed integer quadratic model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about future natural gas consumption in Europe on optimal investments in pipelines. Our data is based on results from the PRIMES model of natural gas demand and technology scenarios discussed in Knopf et al. (2013). We present a comparison between the results from the stochastic model and the expected value model, as well as an analysis of the individual scenarios. We also performed sensitivity analyses on the probabilities of the future scenarios. Comparison of the results from the stochastic model to those of a deterministic expected value model reveals a negligible Value of the Stochastic Solution. We do, however, find structurally different infrastructure solutions in the stochastic and the deterministic models. Regarding infrastructure expansions, we find that 1) the largest pipeline investments will be towards Asia, 2) there is a trend towards a larger gas supply from Africa to Europe, and 3) within Europe, eastward connections will be strengthened. Our main finding using the stochastic approach is that there is limited option value in delaying investments in natural gas infrastructure, until more information is available regarding policy and technology in 2020, due to the low costs of overcapacity. Keywords: Natural gas, Infrastructure, Mixed integer quadratic programming, Stochastic modeling We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We use a stochastic mixed integer quadratic model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about future natural gas consumption in Europe on optimal investments in pipelines. Our data is based on results from the PRIMES model of natural gas demand and technology scenarios discussed in Knopf et al. (2013). We present a comparison between the results from the stochastic model and the expected value model, as well as an analysis of the individual scenarios. We also performed sensitivity analyses on the probabilities of the future scenarios. Comparison of the results from the stochastic model to those of a deterministic expected value model reveals a negligible Value of the Stochastic Solution. We do, however, find structurally different infrastructure solutions in the stochastic and the deterministic models. Regarding infrastructure expansions, we find that 1) the largest pipeline investments will be towards Asia, 2) there is a trend towards a larger gas supply from Africa to Europe, and 3) within Europe, eastward connections will be strengthened. Our main finding using the stochastic approach is that there is limited option value in delaying investments in natural gas infrastructure, until more information is available regarding policy and technology in 2020, due to the low costs of overcapacity.
Audience	Academic
Author	Midthun, Kjetil Fodstad, Marte Tomasgard, Asgeir Egging, Ruud
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Keywords	Infrastructure Mixed integer quadratic programming Stochastic modeling Natural gas
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Snippet	We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We...
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SubjectTerms	Analysis Carbon sequestration Economic models Environmental aspects European Union Expected values Fuel consumption Gas pipelines Greenhouse gases Impact analysis Infrastructure Infrastructure (Economics) Investments Laws, regulations and rules Liquefied natural gas Mixed integer Natural gas Natural gas development Natural gas industry Natural gas pipelines Natural gas transmission Nuclear energy Pipeline transportation Pipelines Sensitivity analysis Stochastic models Storage Supply and demand Technology Transportation costs Uncertainty
Title	Stochastic Modeling of Natural Gas Infrastructure Development in Europe under Demand Uncertainty
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