Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines
Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations 1 , 2 . However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses hav...
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| Vydáno v: | Nature (London) Ročník 588; číslo 7837; s. 267 - 271 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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London
Nature Publishing Group UK
10.12.2020
Nature Publishing Group |
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| ISSN: | 0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687 |
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| Abstract | Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations
1
,
2
. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index
2
). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic–geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts.
In the geographically and taxonomically divided systems of vertebrates in the Living Planet Index, a small percentage of clusters showed extreme declines or increases, whereas most vertebrate populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations
. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index
). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts.Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations.sup.1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index.sup.2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. In the geographically and taxonomically divided systems of vertebrates in the Living Planet Index, a small percentage of clusters showed extreme declines or increases, whereas most vertebrate populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; ifthese extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity ofglobal mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, oftaxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations.sup.1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index.sup.2). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic-geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations 1 , 2 . However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index obscures the variation that can inform conservation measures and can be sensitive to analytical decisions. For example, previous analyses have estimated a mean vertebrate decline of more than 50% since 1970 (Living Planet Index 2 ). Here we show, however, that this estimate is driven by less than 3% of vertebrate populations; if these extremely declining populations are excluded, the global trend switches to an increase. The sensitivity of global mean trends to outliers suggests that more informative indices are needed. We propose an alternative approach, which identifies clusters of extreme decline (or increase) that differ statistically from the majority of population trends. We show that, of taxonomic–geographic systems in the Living Planet Index, 16 systems contain clusters of extreme decline (comprising around 1% of populations; these extreme declines occur disproportionately in larger animals) and 7 contain extreme increases (around 0.4% of populations). The remaining 98.6% of populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. However, when analysed separately, three systems were declining strongly with high certainty (all in the Indo-Pacific region) and seven were declining strongly but with less certainty (mostly reptile and amphibian groups). Accounting for extreme clusters fundamentally alters the interpretation of global vertebrate trends and should be used to help to prioritize conservation efforts. In the geographically and taxonomically divided systems of vertebrates in the Living Planet Index, a small percentage of clusters showed extreme declines or increases, whereas most vertebrate populations across all systems showed no mean global trend. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Leung, Brian Hargreaves, Anna L. Freeman, Robin McGill, Brian Greenberg, Dan A. Dornelas, Maria |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Brian orcidid: 0000-0002-8323-9628 surname: Leung fullname: Leung, Brian email: brian.leung2@mcgill.ca organization: Department of Biology, McGill University, Bieler School of Environment, McGill University – sequence: 2 givenname: Anna L. surname: Hargreaves fullname: Hargreaves, Anna L. organization: Department of Biology, McGill University – sequence: 3 givenname: Dan A. orcidid: 0000-0001-7489-1393 surname: Greenberg fullname: Greenberg, Dan A. organization: Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University – sequence: 4 givenname: Brian surname: McGill fullname: McGill, Brian organization: School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine – sequence: 5 givenname: Maria orcidid: 0000-0003-2077-7055 surname: Dornelas fullname: Dornelas, Maria organization: Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews – sequence: 6 givenname: Robin surname: Freeman fullname: Freeman, Robin organization: Indicators and Assessments Unit, Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33208939$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2020 COPYRIGHT 2020 Nature Publishing Group Copyright Nature Publishing Group Dec 10, 2020 |
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| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-020-2920-6 |
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| Snippet | Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations
1
,
2
. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index... Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations . However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index... Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations.sup.1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index... Recent analyses have reported catastrophic global declines in vertebrate populations1,2. However, the distillation of many trends into a global mean index... |
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| SubjectTerms | 631/158/670 631/158/672 Amphibians Amphibians - classification Analysis Animals Biodiversity Biotic integrity indexes Clusters Comparative analysis Conservation Conservation of Natural Resources Decision analysis Distillation Estimates Forecasts and trends Geographic Mapping Humanities and Social Sciences Hypotheses Internationality Local extinction Mass extinction theory multidisciplinary Observations Outliers (statistics) Planets Population Population (statistical) Population declines Population Dynamics Reptiles Reptiles - classification Science Science (multidisciplinary) Switches Taxonomy Time series Trends Vertebrates Vertebrates - classification |
| Title | Clustered versus catastrophic global vertebrate declines |
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