Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050

Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dang...

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Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 117; no. 5; p. 2354
Main Authors: Otto, Ilona M, Donges, Jonathan F, Cremades, Roger, Bhowmik, Avit, Hewitt, Richard J, Lucht, Wolfgang, Rockström, Johan, Allerberger, Franziska, McCaffrey, Mark, Doe, Sylvanus S P, Lenferna, Alex, Morán, Nerea, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 04.02.2020
Subjects:
decarbonization
Paris Agreement
social tipping interventions
social tipping elements
climate change
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1900577117