Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050
Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dang...
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| Vydáno v: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 117; číslo 5; s. 2354 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
United States
04.02.2020
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| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490, 1091-6490 |
| On-line přístup: | Zjistit podrobnosti o přístupu |
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| Abstract | Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation. |
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| AbstractList | Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation. Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation. |
| Author | Bhowmik, Avit Lenferna, Alex Lucht, Wolfgang Rockström, Johan Otto, Ilona M Hewitt, Richard J McCaffrey, Mark Allerberger, Franziska Donges, Jonathan F Cremades, Roger van Vuuren, Detlef P Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim Doe, Sylvanus S P Morán, Nerea |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ilona M orcidid: 0000-0003-4935-7660 surname: Otto fullname: Otto, Ilona M email: ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de, donges@pik-potsdam.de, john@pik-potsdam.de organization: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de donges@pik-potsdam.de john@pik-potsdam.de – sequence: 2 givenname: Jonathan F surname: Donges fullname: Donges, Jonathan F email: ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de, donges@pik-potsdam.de, john@pik-potsdam.de organization: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden – sequence: 3 givenname: Roger orcidid: 0000-0002-4514-2462 surname: Cremades fullname: Cremades, Roger organization: Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), 20095 Hamburg, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Avit surname: Bhowmik fullname: Bhowmik, Avit organization: Risk and Environmental Studies, Karlstad University, SE 651 88 Karlstad, Sweden – sequence: 5 givenname: Richard J surname: Hewitt fullname: Hewitt, Richard J organization: Observatorio para una Cultura del Territorio, 28012 Madrid, Spain – sequence: 6 givenname: Wolfgang surname: Lucht fullname: Lucht, Wolfgang organization: Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt University, 10099 Berlin, Germany – sequence: 7 givenname: Johan surname: Rockström fullname: Rockström, Johan organization: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden – sequence: 8 givenname: Franziska surname: Allerberger fullname: Allerberger, Franziska organization: Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria – sequence: 9 givenname: Mark surname: McCaffrey fullname: McCaffrey, Mark organization: UN Climate Change community for Education, Communication and Outreach Stakeholders (ECOS), 3046 Kisbágyon, Hungary – sequence: 10 givenname: Sylvanus S P surname: Doe fullname: Doe, Sylvanus S P organization: GeoSustainability Consulting, Adabraka-Accra, Ghana – sequence: 11 givenname: Alex surname: Lenferna fullname: Lenferna, Alex organization: Department of Philosophy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-3350 – sequence: 12 givenname: Nerea surname: Morán fullname: Morán, Nerea organization: Foro de Transiciones, 28011 Madrid, Spain – sequence: 13 givenname: Detlef P surname: van Vuuren fullname: van Vuuren, Detlef P organization: Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands – sequence: 14 givenname: Hans Joachim surname: Schellnhuber fullname: Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim email: ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de, donges@pik-potsdam.de, john@pik-potsdam.de organization: Department of Earth System Science, School of Science, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31964839$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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