Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understa...

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Vydáno v:Energy policy Ročník 64; s. 226 - 242
Hlavní autoři: Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, Eom, Jiyong, Clarke, Leon E., Shukla, Priyadarshi R.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2014
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Témata:
Applied sciences
Assessments
biomass
Building energy demand
Buildings
Climate
Climate change
Climatic conditions
Construction industry
Cooking
Cooling
Cooling systems
Demand
Developed countries
Economic data
Electric power
Electricity
Energy
Energy demand
Energy economics
Energy policy
Energy resources
Energy use
Evolution
Exact sciences and technology
Food preparation
Fuel
fuels
General, economic and professional studies
Global warming
heat
Heating
Income
India
Integrated assessment modeling
Long term
Low income groups
Methodology. Modelling
Per capita
per-capita income
Population growth
Population policy
Power demand
Rural poverty
Studies
Urbanization
India
Integrated assessment modeling
Building energy demand
India
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
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Shrnutí:With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass). ► Building sector final energy demand in India will grow to over five times by century end. ► Space cooling and appliance services will grow substantially in the future. ► Energy service demands will be met predominantly by electricity and gas. ► Urban centers will face huge demand for floor space and building energy services. ► Carbon tax policy will have little effect on reducing building energy demands.
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021