Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries

Background Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Sahara...

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Vydané v:BMC public health Ročník 23; číslo 1; s. 377 - 6
Hlavní autori: Epstein, Adrienne, Harris, Orlando O., Benmarhnia, Tarik, Camlin, Carol S., Weiser, Sheri D.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: London BioMed Central 22.02.2023
BioMed Central Ltd
Springer Nature B.V
BMC
Predmet:
Africa South of the Sahara
Anomalies
Biostatistics
Cross-Sectional Studies
Demographics
Demography
Deviation
Drought
Droughts
Emigration and immigration
Environmental aspects
Environmental Health
Epidemiology
Female
Health aspects
Households
Humans
Hydrologic data
Infectious diseases
Marital Status
Marriage
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Men
Migration
Mobility
Observational studies
Precipitation
Precipitation variability
Public Health
Rain
Rainfall
Regression analysis
Regression models
Rural areas
Surveys
Surveys and Questionnaires
Vaccine
Womens health
Africa South of the Sahara
Sub-Saharan Africa
Africa
Africa South of the Sahara
Rain
Demography
Droughts
Migration
ISSN:1471-2458, 1471-2458
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Shrnutí:Background Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. Methods Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. Results Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. Conclusion Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts.
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ISSN:1471-2458
1471-2458
DOI:10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z