Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains
The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space...
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| Vydáno v: | Global change biology Ročník 28; číslo 21; s. 6209 - 6227 |
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| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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England
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01.11.2022
John Wiley and Sons Inc |
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| ISSN: | 1354-1013, 1365-2486, 1365-2486 |
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| Abstract | The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.
We separated variation in temperature and precipitation into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia over a 23‐year period. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Implicit in forecasts of species' distributions based on space‐for‐time substitution is the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate, which was seldom met in our study system. |
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| AbstractList | The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales. We separated variation in temperature and precipitation into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia over a 23‐year period. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Implicit in forecasts of species' distributions based on space‐for‐time substitution is the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate, which was seldom met in our study system. The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space-for-time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales. The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales. The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales. We separated variation in temperature and precipitation into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia over a 23‐year period. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Implicit in forecasts of species' distributions based on space‐for‐time substitution is the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate, which was seldom met in our study system. The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under “space‐for‐time substitution”, the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space‐for‐time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid‐ versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23‐year period (1996–2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space‐for‐time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space‐for‐time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales. |
| Author | Sandercock, Brett K. Lehikoinen, Aleksi Brommer, Jon E. Øien, Ingar Jostein Bradter, Ute Kålås, John Atle Pavón‐Jordán, Diego Hochachka, Wesley M. Piirainen, Sirke Lindström, Åke Johnston, Alison Pärt, Tomas Soultan, Alaaeldin Gaget, Elie |
| AuthorAffiliation | 6 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria 7 Finnish Museum of Natural History Helsinki Finland 8 Department of Biology, Biodiversity Unit Lund University Lund Sweden 4 Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden 3 CREEM, School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St. Andrews St. Andrews UK 10 BirdLife Norway Trondheim Norway 9 Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Rovaniemi Finland 5 Department of Biology University of Turku Turku Finland 1 Department of Terrestrial Ecology Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Trondheim Norway 2 Cornell Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 1 Department of Terrestrial Ecology Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Trondheim Norway – name: 2 Cornell Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA – name: 5 Department of Biology University of Turku Turku Finland – name: 7 Finnish Museum of Natural History Helsinki Finland – name: 9 Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Rovaniemi Finland – name: 4 Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala Sweden – name: 6 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria – name: 3 CREEM, School of Mathematics and Statistics University of St. Andrews St. Andrews UK – name: 10 BirdLife Norway Trondheim Norway – name: 8 Department of Biology, Biodiversity Unit Lund University Lund Sweden |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ute orcidid: 0000-0001-5687-1233 surname: Bradter fullname: Bradter, Ute email: ute.bradter@nina.no organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research – sequence: 2 givenname: Alison orcidid: 0000-0001-8221-013X surname: Johnston fullname: Johnston, Alison organization: University of St. Andrews – sequence: 3 givenname: Wesley M. orcidid: 0000-0002-0595-7827 surname: Hochachka fullname: Hochachka, Wesley M. organization: Cornell University – sequence: 4 givenname: Alaaeldin orcidid: 0000-0002-3976-2657 surname: Soultan fullname: Soultan, Alaaeldin organization: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences – sequence: 5 givenname: Jon E. orcidid: 0000-0002-2435-2612 surname: Brommer fullname: Brommer, Jon E. organization: University of Turku – sequence: 6 givenname: Elie orcidid: 0000-0003-3462-9686 surname: Gaget fullname: Gaget, Elie organization: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) – sequence: 7 givenname: John Atle orcidid: 0000-0002-2126-0261 surname: Kålås fullname: Kålås, John Atle organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research – sequence: 8 givenname: Aleksi orcidid: 0000-0002-1989-277X surname: Lehikoinen fullname: Lehikoinen, Aleksi organization: Finnish Museum of Natural History – sequence: 9 givenname: Åke orcidid: 0000-0002-5597-6209 surname: Lindström fullname: Lindström, Åke organization: Lund University – sequence: 10 givenname: Sirke orcidid: 0000-0002-2568-8134 surname: Piirainen fullname: Piirainen, Sirke organization: Arctic Centre, University of Lapland – sequence: 11 givenname: Diego orcidid: 0000-0001-5105-3426 surname: Pavón‐Jordán fullname: Pavón‐Jordán, Diego organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research – sequence: 12 givenname: Tomas orcidid: 0000-0001-7388-6672 surname: Pärt fullname: Pärt, Tomas organization: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences – sequence: 13 givenname: Ingar Jostein orcidid: 0000-0003-0986-2726 surname: Øien fullname: Øien, Ingar Jostein organization: BirdLife Norway – sequence: 14 givenname: Brett K. orcidid: 0000-0002-9240-0268 surname: Sandercock fullname: Sandercock, Brett K. organization: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899584$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed https://res.slu.se/id/publ/118746$$DView record from Swedish Publication Index (Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet) |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2022 The Authors. published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 2022. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2022 The Authors. published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. – notice: 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. – notice: 2022. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
| CorporateAuthor | Forskargrupper vid Biologiska institutionen Lunds universitet Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten Profile areas and other strong research environments BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate Faculty of Science Lund University Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap Department of Biology Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO) Biologiska institutionen Strategic research areas (SRA) Research groups at the Department of Biology Biodiversity and Conservation Science Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet |
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| Keywords | anticipatory forecasts spatiotemporal pattern space-for-time substitution species distribution models forecast horizon static forecasts dynamic forecasts climate decomposition spatiotemporal forecasts |
| Language | English |
| License | Attribution 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
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| SubjectTerms | Abundance Animal breeding Animals anticipatory forecasts Biologi Biological Sciences Bird populations Birds Birds - physiology Breeding Breeding seasons Climate Change climate decomposition Climate effects Climate models Climate Research Climate Science climatic factors Components Decomposition dynamic forecasts Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Ecology Ecology (including Biodiversity Conservation) Ecosystem Ekologi Environmental Sciences Equivalence forecast horizon Geographical distribution Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap Klimatforskning Klimatvetenskap Land cover Miljövetenskap Mountains Natural Sciences Naturvetenskap Population Dynamics Scandinavia Seasons space‐for‐time substitution Spatial variations spatiotemporal forecasts spatiotemporal pattern Species species abundance species distribution models static forecasts Substitutes Surveys Temperature temporal variation Temporal variations topography |
| Title | Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains |
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