Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control

Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vacc...

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Veröffentlicht in:	PLoS neglected tropical diseases Jg. 9; H. 11; S. e0004177
Hauptverfasser:	Conan, Anne, Akerele, Oluyemisi, Simpson, Greg, Reininghaus, Bjorn, van Rooyen, Jacques, Knobel, Darryn
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	United States Public Library of Science 01.11.2015 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Schlagworte:	Animals Birth rate Confidence intervals Control Data collection Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control Dog Diseases - prevention & control Dogs - growth & development Female Feral dogs Health surveillance Infections Male Methods Migration Mortality Population Population Dynamics Public health Public health administration Rabies Rabies - epidemiology Rabies - prevention & control Rabies - veterinary Rabies Vaccines - administration & dosage Smallpox South Africa - epidemiology Vaccines South Africa
ISSN:	1935-2735, 1935-2727, 1935-2735
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Abstract	Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.
AbstractList	BACKGROUND:Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE:Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination. Background Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. Methodology/Principal Findings We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. Conclusions and Significance Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination. Rabies is a deadly disease caused by a virus that in Africa is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies can be controlled by mass vaccination, by ensuring that a certain proportion of the dog population is immune to the disease. Maintaining this proportion of immune animals creates herd immunity, reducing the spread of disease even among non-immune individuals, eventually leading to its elimination from the population. Maintaining herd immunity to rabies in free-roaming dog populations can be challenging, particularly in communities that lack regular access to veterinary services. In these communities, mass vaccination is usually implemented in annual campaigns, of relatively short duration. Between campaigns, the proportion of immune individuals in the population declines, often dropping below the critical threshold as vaccinated dogs die and susceptible dogs enter the population through birth or migration. We measured these rates of birth, death and migration in a typical population of free-roaming dogs in South Africa, and showed that vaccinating 70% of the population during annual campaigns would be sufficient to maintain herd immunity to rabies in the period between campaigns. This is achievable even in populations that have high turnover and are growing rapidly—the most challenging circumstances to maintaining herd immunity. These findings increase confidence in the feasibility of eliminating dog rabies from Africa through mass vaccination. Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11,95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31,95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination. Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies.BACKGROUNDRabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies.We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months.METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGSWe implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months.Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCEOur findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination. Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies elimination can be achieved through the mass vaccination of dogs, but maintaining the critical threshold of vaccination coverage for herd immunity in these populations is hampered by their rapid turnover. Knowledge of the population dynamics of free-roaming dog populations can inform effective planning and implementation of mass dog vaccination campaigns to control rabies. We implemented a health and demographic surveillance system in dogs that monitored the entire owned dog population within a defined geographic area in a community in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. We quantified demographic rates over a 24-month period, from 1st January 2012 through 1st January 2014, and assessed their implications for rabies control by simulating the decline in vaccination coverage over time. During this period, the population declined by 10%. Annual population growth rates were +18.6% in 2012 and -24.5% in 2013. Crude annual birth rates (per 1,000 dog-years of observation) were 451 in 2012 and 313 in 2013. Crude annual death rates were 406 in 2012 and 568 in 2013. Females suffered a significantly higher mortality rate in 2013 than males (mortality rate ratio [MRR] = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.28-1.85). In the age class 0-3 months, the mortality rate of dogs vaccinated against rabies was significantly lower than that of unvaccinated dogs (2012: MRR = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.05-0.21; 2013: MRR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69). The results of the simulation showed that achieving a 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns would maintain coverage above the critical threshold for at least 12 months. Our findings provide an evidence base for the World Health Organization's empirically-derived target of 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns. Achieving this will be effective even in highly dynamic populations with extremely high growth rates and rapid turnover. This increases confidence in the feasibility of dog rabies elimination in Africa through mass vaccination.
Audience	Academic
Author	Knobel, Darryn Akerele, Oluyemisi van Rooyen, Jacques Reininghaus, Bjorn Simpson, Greg Conan, Anne
AuthorAffiliation	Atlanta Health Associates, Inc., UNITED STATES 5 Center for Conservation Medicine and Ecosystem Health, Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, Basseterre, St. Kitts 2 Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Gauteng, South Africa 1 Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa 4 Mpumalanga Veterinary Services, Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, Land and Environmental Affairs, Thulamahashe, South Africa 3 Centre for Veterinary Wildlife Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Studies, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
AuthorAffiliation_xml	– name: 1 Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa – name: 5 Center for Conservation Medicine and Ecosystem Health, Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, Basseterre, St. Kitts – name: 4 Mpumalanga Veterinary Services, Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, Land and Environmental Affairs, Thulamahashe, South Africa – name: Atlanta Health Associates, Inc., UNITED STATES – name: 2 Gauteng Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Gauteng, South Africa – name: 3 Centre for Veterinary Wildlife Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Studies, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
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BackLink	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26545242$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Copyright	COPYRIGHT 2015 Public Library of Science 2015 Conan et al 2015 Conan et al 2015 Public Library of Science. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited: Conan A, Akerele O, Simpson G, Reininghaus B, van Rooyen J, Knobel D (2015) Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9(11): e0004177. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004177
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Notes	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Current address: Center for Conservation Medicine and Ecosystem Health, Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, Basseterre, St Kitts Conceived and designed the experiments: DK AC. Performed the experiments: AC DK OA GS BR JVR. Analyzed the data: AC DK OA. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: GS BR JVR. Wrote the paper: DK AC OA GS BR JVR. The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Snippet	Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of owned,... Background Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of... Rabies is a deadly disease caused by a virus that in Africa is maintained in populations of owned, free-roaming domestic dogs. Rabies can be controlled by mass... BACKGROUND:Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of... Background Rabies is a serious yet neglected public health threat in resource-limited communities in Africa, where the virus is maintained in populations of...
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SubjectTerms	Animals Birth rate Confidence intervals Control Data collection Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control Dog Diseases - prevention & control Dogs - growth & development Female Feral dogs Health surveillance Infections Male Methods Migration Mortality Population Population Dynamics Public health Public health administration Rabies Rabies - epidemiology Rabies - prevention & control Rabies - veterinary Rabies Vaccines - administration & dosage Smallpox South Africa - epidemiology Vaccines
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Title	Population Dynamics of Owned, Free-Roaming Dogs: Implications for Rabies Control
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