Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restriction...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports Jg. 10; H. 1; S. 13764
Hauptverfasser: Scala, Antonio, Flori, Andrea, Spelta, Alessandro, Brugnoli, Emanuele, Cinelli, Matteo, Quattrociocchi, Walter, Pammolli, Fabio
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group UK 13.08.2020
Nature Publishing Group
Schlagworte:
639/766/259
639/766/530/2803
Adolescent
Adult
Age composition
Age Factors
Aged
Betacoronavirus
Child
Child, Preschool
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Demography
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Geography
Heterogeneity
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Interpersonal Relations
Italy - epidemiology
Middle Aged
Mobility
Models, Statistical
multidisciplinary
Pandemics - prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
Quarantine - methods
Regions
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Social Behavior
Social interactions
Time Factors
Travel
Young Adult
Italy
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Zusammenfassung:We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-70631-9