SARS2 simplified scores to estimate risk of hospitalization and death among patients with COVID-19

Although models have been developed for predicting severity of COVID-19 from the medical history of patients, simplified models with good accuracy could be more practical. In this study, we examined utility of simpler models for estimating risk of hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 and mortal...

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Vydáno v:Scientific reports Ročník 11; číslo 1; s. 4945 - 9
Hlavní autoři: Dashti, Hesam, Roche, Elise C., Bates, David William, Mora, Samia, Demler, Olga
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: London Nature Publishing Group UK 02.03.2021
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Témata:
631/114
692/499
Adult
Aged
Algorithms
Cohort Studies
Computational Biology - methods
Continental Population Groups - statistics & numerical data
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 Testing - methods
Decision making
Ethnic Groups
Female
Generalized linear models
Hospitalization
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Mortality
multidisciplinary
Nomograms
Risk Factors
SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Severity of Illness Index
Smoking
Socioeconomics
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Shrnutí:Although models have been developed for predicting severity of COVID-19 from the medical history of patients, simplified models with good accuracy could be more practical. In this study, we examined utility of simpler models for estimating risk of hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 and mortality of these patients based on demographic characteristics (sex, age, race, median household income based on zip code) and smoking status of 12,347 patients who tested positive at Mass General Brigham centers. The corresponding electronic records were queried (02/26–07/14/2020) to construct derivation and validation cohorts. The derivation cohort was used to fit generalized linear models for estimating risk of hospitalization within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality within approximately 3 months for the hospitalized patients. In the validation cohort, the model resulted in c-statistics of 0.77 [95% CI 0.73–0.80] for hospitalization, and 0.84 [95% CI 0.74–0.94] for mortality among hospitalized patients. Higher risk was associated with older age, male sex, Black ethnicity, lower socioeconomic status, and current/past smoking status. The models can be applied to predict the absolute risks of hospitalization and mortality, and could aid in individualizing the decision making when detailed medical history of patients is not readily available.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-84603-0